{"id":78920,"date":"2026-05-12T08:57:41","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T01:57:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/top-analyst-confirms-the-bearish-target-bitcoin-could-ease-down-to-40000\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T09:31:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T02:31:30","slug":"top-analyst-confirms-the-bearish-target-bitcoin-could-ease-down-to-40000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/top-analyst-confirms-the-bearish-target-bitcoin-could-ease-down-to-40000\/","title":{"rendered":"Nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1: Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c 40.000 USD."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u0110\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin (BTC) \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u m\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e0 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1edbn h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

AlejandroBTC \u2014 \u0111\u0103ng t\u1ea3i tr\u00ean X (tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 Twitter) \u2014 g\u1ecdi di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cdead cat bounce\u201d (c\u00fa n\u1ea3y m\u00e8o ch\u1ebft), cho r\u1eb1ng nh\u1ecbp ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eafp k\u1ebft th\u00fac v\u00e0 Bitcoin c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb Tr\u01b0\u1eddng G\u1ea5u V\u1eabn Ch\u01b0a K\u1ebft Th\u00fac?<\/h2>\n

Theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u201cl\u1ea1c quan nh\u1ea5t\u201d c\u1ee7a AlejandroBTC, vi\u1ec7c Bitcoin v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean tr\u00ean m\u1ed1c 82.000 USD th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y. N\u1ebfu k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra, \u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t lao d\u1ed1c m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

\u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 50%, h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 khu v\u1ef1c 40.000 USD.<\/p>\n

Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh kh\u00e1c, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 n\u01a1i h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u201cn\u1ec1n gi\u00e1 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc\u201d h\u01a1n \u2014 ng\u1ee5 \u00fd r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e1y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y thay v\u00ec ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c lao d\u1ed1c s\u00e2u h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 CryptoCon l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0a ra g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Bitcoin trong chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

CryptoCon d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean th\u1eddi gian trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea5u tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0 cho bi\u1ebft, theo m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 391 ng\u00e0y, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh kho\u1ea3ng 55%.<\/p>\n

Theo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua 216 ng\u00e0y trong chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng cho bi\u1ebft m\u1ee9c s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u nh\u1ea5t cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng -52%, cao h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 25% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e1y c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"
Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ng\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y BTC \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ed1c 82.000 USD. Ngu\u1ed3n: BTCUSDT tr\u00ean TradingView.com<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n, CryptoCon cho r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i, Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh m\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea5u tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y t\u1eebng tr\u1ea3i qua \u2014 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng \u201ct\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t\u201d theo th\u00f4ng l\u1ec7 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec Sao Tu\u1ea7n N\u00e0y C\u00f3 Th\u1ec3 \u0110\u00e1nh D\u1ea5u \u201c\u0110\u1ec9nh C\u1ee7a Bitcoin\u201d?<\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m bi quan n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i b\u1edfi chuy\u00ean gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng CryptoRover, ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho r\u1eb1ng tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y \u201cc\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a Bitcoin\u201d.<\/p>\n

L\u1eadp lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Rover kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i m\u00e0 c\u00f2n d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n

\u00d4ng ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 t\u1eebng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • N\u0103m 2014, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00fa s\u1eadp 65%<\/li>\n
  • N\u0103m 2018, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00fa s\u1eadp 64%<\/li>\n
  • N\u0103m 2022, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00fa s\u1eadp 52%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00f3, Rover cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 lo ng\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n.<\/p>\n

    \u0110\u1ec3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 cho quan \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1eb1ng r\u1ee7i ro \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng khi chu k\u1ef3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00e0nh, CryptoRover c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0a ra ba y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh n\u1ebfu x\u1ea3y ra c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

    Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt c\u1ee7a Open Interest (OI).<\/p>\n

    \u00d4ng cho bi\u1ebft Bitcoin \u0111\u00e3 ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng OI h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2026, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u1edf c\u00e1c altcoin khi trader \u0111\u1ed5 x\u00f4 ch\u1ea1y theo \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

    Theo g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, khi OI t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 nhanh, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ec5 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t \u201cliquidation cascade\u201d (thanh l\u00fd d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n) \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u00f9ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao b\u1ecb bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n

    Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

    Rover cho r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n Fed x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch m\u1edbi, Bitcoin th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

    Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 th\u1ee9 ba l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u01b0ng ph\u1ea5n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

    CryptoRover nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u201cg\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 parabol\u201d v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

    \u00d4ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng d\u00f9 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed m\u1edbi, Bitcoin v\u00e0 altcoin v\u1eabn c\u00f2n c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1 xa c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n

    \u00d4ng k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh, crypto \u2014 v\u1ed1n \u0111ang y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u2014 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

    \u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o b\u1eb1ng OpenArt, bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 t\u1eeb TradingView.com.<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u0110\u1ee3t t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Bitcoin (BTC) \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u m\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e0 v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":78923,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78920"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79120,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78920\/revisions\/79120"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}