{"id":78356,"date":"2026-05-07T09:10:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T02:10:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/indonesia-fiscal-slippage-keeps-bearish-bias-societe-generale\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T09:35:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T02:35:10","slug":"indonesia-rui-ro-truot-ky-luat-tai-khoa-duy-tri-xu-huong-tieu-cuc-societe-generale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/indonesia-rui-ro-truot-ky-luat-tai-khoa-duy-tri-xu-huong-tieu-cuc-societe-generale\/","title":{"rendered":"Indonesia: R\u1ee7i ro tr\u01b0\u1ee3t k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u2013 Societe Generale"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"post-content-section\">\n<p>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Kunal Kundu v\u00e0 Galvin Chia c\u1ee7a Societe Generale cho bi\u1ebft t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy y\u1ebfu t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a c\u1ee7a Indonesia trong \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh chi ti\u00eau s\u1edbm, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1n c\u00e2n ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t v\u00e0 l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u vay v\u1ed1n. H\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 c\u00e1c lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i thay v\u00ec t\u1ea1o ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng Rupiah Indonesia v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n d\u00e0i s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n<p>R\u1ee7i ro t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi FX<\/p>\n<p>\u201cM\u1eb7c d\u00f9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng c\u00e1c lo ng\u1ea1i l\u00e2u nay c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f3 l\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1eadn bi\u00ean qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i. FX hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed r\u00f2ng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n v\u00e3ng lai m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTuy nhi\u00ean, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro \u1edf l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n d\u00e0i t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9, do vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cQu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh th\u1ef1c thi t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c Indonesia v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cD\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i: ch\u00fang t\u00f4i ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i v\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m bear-flattening \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>(B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u00ean t\u1eadp vi\u00ean r\u00e0 so\u00e1t.)<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Kunal Kundu v\u00e0 Galvin Chia c\u1ee7a Societe Generale cho bi\u1ebft t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy y\u1ebfu t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":78357,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78356"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78356\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78456,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78356\/revisions\/78456"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78357"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}