{"id":78338,"date":"2026-05-07T09:10:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T02:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/feds-goolsbee-us%e2%80%91iran-conflict-is-an-inflationary-shock\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T09:38:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T02:38:27","slug":"chu-tich-fed-chicago-austan-goolsbee-cho-biet-xung-dot-my-iran-hien-dang-mang-tinh-chat-cua-mot-cu-soc-lam-phat-doi-voi-nen-kinh-te-my","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/chu-tich-fed-chicago-austan-goolsbee-cho-biet-xung-dot-my-iran-hien-dang-mang-tinh-chat-cua-mot-cu-soc-lam-phat-doi-voi-nen-kinh-te-my\/","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, cho bi\u1ebft xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9\u2013Iran hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang mang t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u201cc\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"post-content-section\">\n<p>Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Chicago Austan Goolsbee cho bi\u1ebft xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9\u2013Iran hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang mang nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u201cc\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d. \u00d4ng n\u00f3i th\u00eam r\u1eb1ng: \u201cCho \u0111\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, \u0111\u00e2y v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c theo h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00ecnh l\u1ea1m\u201d, t\u1ee9c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng v\u1eeba g\u00e2y t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng cao, bu\u1ed9c Fed ph\u1ea3i l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0o \u0111ang g\u1eb7p r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. Goolsbee \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y trong cu\u1ed9c g\u1ecdi video v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 b\u00e1o sau khi tham d\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Milken Institute t\u1ea1i Los Angeles.<\/p>\n<p>Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Vi\u1ec7c c\u1ea3i t\u1ed5 khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u201ckh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>Kevin Warsh c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc.<\/li>\n<li>Fed n\u00ean t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng t\u1ed1i \u0111a m\u1ecdi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3, nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng tin t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t \u201cvi\u00ean \u0111\u1ea1n b\u1ea1c\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d4ng c\u1edfi m\u1edf v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d4ng s\u1ebd theo d\u00f5i nguy c\u01a1 nhu c\u1ea7u \u201ch\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c\u201d n\u1ebfu ni\u1ec1m tin ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng th\u1ea5p d\u1eabn t\u1edbi chi ti\u00eau ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m.<\/li>\n<li>M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n t\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng do d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 gi\u00e0 h\u00f3a k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/li>\n<li>Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao c\u00e0ng l\u00e2u th\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao v\u00e0o k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u201cc\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i\u201d \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Fed.<\/li>\n<li>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 m\u1ea1nh; s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9 \u201cd\u01b0 th\u1eeba\u201d lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y.<\/li>\n<li>Qua c\u00e1c ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u00f4ng khai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y b\u00ean trong Fed t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/li>\n<li>D\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i t\u0103ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, chi ti\u00eau d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh gi\u00e0u c\u00f3 v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh ngh\u1ec1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 AI.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d4ng kh\u00f4ng b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd khi th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ee9t g\u00e3y chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n do xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9\u2013Iran k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.<\/li>\n<li>M\u1ecdi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u00ean b\u00e0n v\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u00ean hi\u1ec3u \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3.<\/li>\n<li>B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u n\u00e0o cho th\u1ea5y M\u1ef9 \u0111ang \u0111i sai h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c Fed ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.<\/li>\n<li>M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9 b\u1ec1n nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, nh\u01b0ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/li>\n<li>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u00ecn chung v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Fed su\u1ed1t 5 n\u0103m v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i.<\/li>\n<li>Fed c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh vi hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t \u201cs\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5\u201d trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 chi ti\u00eau nh\u1edd hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng do \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p v\u1ec1 Fed<\/p>\n<p>Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh b\u1edfi C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed). Fed c\u00f3 hai nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh: duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u1ed1i \u0111a. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Khi gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng qu\u00e1 nhanh v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2%, Fed s\u1ebd n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, khi\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed vay t\u0103ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng USD v\u00ec M\u1ef9 tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n<p>Fed t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c 8 cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, n\u01a1i \u1ee6y ban Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1edf Li\u00ean bang (FOMC) \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. FOMC g\u1ed3m 12 quan ch\u1ee9c Fed: 7 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed New York v\u00e0 4 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c lu\u00e2n phi\u00ean theo nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 m\u1ed9t n\u0103m.<\/p>\n<p>Trong c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, Fed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE). \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh Fed b\u01a1m thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch in th\u00eam USD v\u00e0 mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. QE th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng USD.<\/p>\n<p>Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QT) l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh Fed ng\u1eebng mua tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ed1 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. QT th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng USD.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Chicago Austan Goolsbee cho bi\u1ebft xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9\u2013Iran hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang mang nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u201cc\u00fa [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":78340,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78338"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78338\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78463,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78338\/revisions\/78463"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78340"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}