{"id":77504,"date":"2026-05-05T10:10:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-set-for-more-pain-amid-hormuz-tensions-inflation-fears\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T10:16:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T03:16:53","slug":"du-bao-gia-vang-xau-usd-co-the-tiep-tuc-chiu-ap-luc-giam-trong-boi-canh-cang-thang-tai-hormuz-va-lo-ngai-lam-phat-gia-tang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/du-bao-gia-vang-xau-usd-co-the-tiep-tuc-chiu-ap-luc-giam-trong-boi-canh-cang-thang-tai-hormuz-va-lo-ngai-lam-phat-gia-tang\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng: XAU\/USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1ea1i Hormuz v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng \u0111ang ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t nh\u1ecbp h\u1ed3i k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt y\u1ebfu (dead cat bounce) t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng t\u1ea1i 4.501 USD v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u phi\u00ean th\u1ee9 Ba, tuy nhi\u00ean phe b\u00e1n nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i khi nhu c\u1ea7u tr\u00fa \u1ea9n v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng USD v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec v\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng quanh Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng M\u1ef9 – Iran t\u00e1i leo thang.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn trong tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i n\u00e9 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c xanh, qua \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf m\u1ecdi n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng \u2013 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi USD.<\/p>\n

C\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng M\u1ef9 – Iran li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111ang n\u00f3ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n sau khi qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 cho bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 n\u1ed5 s\u00fang v\u00e0o l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Iran v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm s\u00e1u t\u00e0u nh\u1ecf nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o t\u00e0u d\u00e2n s\u1ef1 trong n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c m\u1edf l\u1ea1i tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Hai.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t (UAE), m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng minh quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n 15 t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 4 m\u00e1y bay kh\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e1i do Iran ph\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00eda Iran kh\u00f4ng x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ee7 nh\u1eadn tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Iran Abbas Araghchi c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng c\u1ea3 M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 UAE \u201cn\u00ean c\u1ea9n tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb k\u00e9o tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t v\u0169ng l\u1ea7y\u201d.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 trong ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 Ba, truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng Iran d\u1eabn ngu\u1ed3n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 cho bi\u1ebft M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng hai t\u00e0u d\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u1edbi Iran, tuy nhi\u00ean c\u00e1c t\u00e0u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng V\u1ec7 binh C\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o (IRGC).<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng M\u1ef9 – Iran t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c eo bi\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c leo thang, v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c k\u00e9p v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Lo ng\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng theo h\u01b0\u1edbng \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d c\u1ee7a Federal Reserve v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng sinh l\u1ee3i nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ed3ng USD v\u1eabn l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn tr\u00fa \u1ea9n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, qua \u0111\u00f3 duy tr\u00ec \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng tr\u1eeb khi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1ea1i Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz.<\/p>\n

T\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 4 c\u00f3 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 hay kh\u00f4ng khi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1ea1i Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111ang n\u00f3ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng: Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ng\u00e0y<\/h3>\n
\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ng\u00e0y, XAU\/USD \u0111ang giao d\u1ecbch quanh m\u1ee9c 4.540,20 USD, duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n khi v\u1eabn b\u1ecb k\u00ecm d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n (SMA) 21 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 4.701,91 USD v\u00e0 c\u1ee5m SMA d\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7c g\u1ed3m SMA 100 ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 50 ng\u00e0y l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t t\u1ea1i 4.766,49 USD v\u00e0 4.808,32 USD. C\u1eb7p n\u00e0y v\u1eabn giao d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean SMA 200 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 4.293,14 USD v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 d\u1ed1c l\u00ean quanh 4.382,60 USD, tuy nhi\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 4.607,28 USD c\u00f9ng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o RSI (14) suy y\u1ebfu \u1edf m\u1ee9c 39,12 cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c nh\u1ecbp h\u1ed3i nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd b\u1ecb b\u00e1n xu\u1ed1ng khi gi\u00e1 c\u00f2n n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng c\u1ea3n ph\u00eda tr\u00ean.<\/p>\n

\u1ede chi\u1ec1u t\u0103ng, kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t n\u1eb1m t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m quanh 4.607,28 USD, ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 SMA 21 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 4.701,91 USD; n\u1ebfu ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y, gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi SMA 100 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 4.766,49 USD v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 SMA 50 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 4.808,32 USD. \u1ede chi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m, h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ban \u0111\u1ea7u n\u1eb1m g\u1ea7n v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 quanh 4.382,60 USD, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi v\u1ec1 SMA 200 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 4.293,14 USD \u2013 n\u01a1i phe mua \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

(Ph\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 AI.)<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t<\/strong><\/h3>\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 (headline inflation) th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec3u th\u1ecb d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m thay \u0111\u1ed5i theo th\u00e1ng (MoM) v\u00e0 theo n\u0103m (YoY). L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00f5i (core inflation) lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u01b0 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u2013 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1ec5 thay \u0111\u1ed5i do y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eadp trung theo d\u00f5i v\u00e0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi, th\u01b0\u1eddng quanh m\u1ee9c 2%.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng (CPI) \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t r\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 theo th\u1eddi gian, c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n theo MoM v\u00e0 YoY. CPI l\u00f5i l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u1eafm t\u1edbi v\u00ec lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Khi CPI l\u00f5i v\u01b0\u1ee3t 2%, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i khi th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 2%. Do l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n, n\u00ean l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia, v\u00ec ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, v\u00e0ng l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao v\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. Tuy nhi\u00ean, hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng \u0111\u00fang. Khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng cao, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng th\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i cho v\u00e0ng v\u00ec l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i khi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00f4ng sinh l\u00e3i. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u1ea3m, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ea1, gi\u00fap v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 thay th\u1ebf.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng \u0111ang ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t nh\u1ecbp h\u1ed3i k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt y\u1ebfu (dead cat bounce) t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":77505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77504"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77504\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77535,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77504\/revisions\/77535"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}