{"id":77254,"date":"2026-05-05T08:58:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T01:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vang-dieu-chinh-manh-sau-khi-lap-dinh-vi-sao-dong-tien-toan-cau-van-do-vao\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T09:18:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T02:18:53","slug":"vang-dieu-chinh-manh-sau-khi-lap-dinh-vi-sao-dong-tien-toan-cau-van-do-vao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/vang-dieu-chinh-manh-sau-khi-lap-dinh-vi-sao-dong-tien-toan-cau-van-do-vao\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00e0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ea1nh sau khi l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh: V\u00ec sao d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y t\u1eeb t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi JPMorgan Chase & Co., c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng hi\u1ec7n nay kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01a1n thu\u1ea7n l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n “tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n\u201d m\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u2018tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t\u2019 gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00ednh t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2021, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng<\/a> \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 170%, m\u1ee9c sinh l\u1eddi v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00f3m t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Sang n\u0103m 2026, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng ghi nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh khi t\u1eebng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 5.400 USD\/ounce v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u00ean ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 5.000 USD\/ounce. Nh\u1eefng phi\u00ean g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh v\u00f9ng 4.700 USD\/ounce.<\/p>\n

Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u201ct\u0103ng – gi\u1ea3m – h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c\u201d li\u00ean t\u1ee5c n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n, khi c\u1ea3 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u1eabn nhu c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f9ng l\u00fac t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

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V\u00e0ng \u0111ang \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i gi\u1eb1ng co. \u1ea2nh: Tu\u1ea5n H\u00f9ng<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Theo JPMorgan, \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t ph\u00eda sau \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, suy y\u1ebfu ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t k\u00eanh \u201cph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7\u201d tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng mua v\u00e0o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn v\u00e0 m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0ng nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3ng USD. Nh\u00f3m c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9, \u0110\u1ee9c, Italy, Ph\u00e1p hay Nga v\u1eabn n\u1eb1m trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u1eafm gi\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, nh\u01b0ng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1edbi l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, Ba Lan v\u00e0 Brazil \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u00edch l\u0169y v\u00e0ng trong c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n

Ri\u00eang Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n

Theo kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng V\u00e0ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (WGC), kho\u1ea3ng 95% ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi trong n\u0103m 2025 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0o k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y, v\u00e0ng \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u?<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00f9 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda t\u00edch l\u0169y, JPMorgan c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra m\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro mang t\u00ednh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed: n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 mua ho\u1eb7c chuy\u1ec3n sang b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng x\u1ea3y ra trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1999-2002, khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u00e2u \u00c2u nh\u01b0 Anh ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh b\u00e1n b\u1edbt v\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef. Khi \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn.<\/p>\n

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L\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u00e0ng qua c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec9nh kho\u1ea3ng 111 tri\u1ec7u ounce (2020), sau \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 100 tri\u1ec7u ounce v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, cho th\u1ea5y d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng theo chu k\u1ef3 nh\u01b0ng duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. \u1ea2nh: Bloomberg Finance<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. L\u00fd do l\u00e0 v\u00e0ng \u0111ang tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i vai tr\u00f2 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef qu\u1ed1c gia, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb k\u00e9o d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh kh\u1ed1i ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u0169ng \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0ng, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ETF v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i danh m\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i v\u00e0ng hi\u1ec7n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef kho\u1ea3ng 100 tri\u1ec7u ounce v\u00e0ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 8% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0ng do ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh t\u1eebng ghi nh\u1eadn v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 cho th\u1ea5y d\u00f9 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n \u0111ang t\u0103ng, nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 chi ph\u1ed1i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u00f3m nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0y l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, do xu h\u01b0\u1edbng giao d\u1ecbch theo t\u00e2m l\u00fd v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng nhanh v\u1edbi tin t\u1ee9c v\u0129 m\u00f4.<\/p>\n

Theo JPMorgan, \u0111i\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n gi\u00e1 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, m\u00e0 \u1edf vai tr\u00f2 trong danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng suy gi\u1ea3m, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan th\u1ea5p v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ea1nh trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn \u0111ang n\u1eb1m trong m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, thay v\u00ec c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec9nh hay \u0111\u00e1y, gi\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng trong danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

T\u1eed Huy<\/a><\/strong><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y t\u1eeb t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi JPMorgan Chase & Co., c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":77256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vang"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77369,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77254\/revisions\/77369"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}