{"id":76116,"date":"2026-04-28T09:00:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-28T02:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/thoa-thuan-no-de-ket-thc-chien-su-iran\/"},"modified":"2026-04-28T09:00:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T02:00:52","slug":"thoa-thuan-no-de-ket-thc-chien-su-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/thoa-thuan-no-de-ket-thc-chien-su-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn nào \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft thúc chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 Iran?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

H\u00f4m qua 27.4, trang Axios <\/i>d\u1eabn l\u1eddi quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 cho hay n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t t\u1eeb Iran<\/a> v\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p m\u1edf l\u1ea1i eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz<\/a> v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh, nh\u01b0ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n b\u1ecb ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp theo. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 v\u1eady l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 d\u0129. B\u1edfi v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c phong t\u1ecfa eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz c\u0169ng l\u00e0 “l\u00e1 b\u00e0i” quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 M\u1ef9 g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p v\u1edbi Iran, n\u00ean n\u1ebfu chuy\u1ec3n v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n sau th\u00ec Washington s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t “\u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y” n\u00e0y trong vi\u1ec7c th\u00fac \u00e9p Tehran \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1i k\u1ebft th\u1ebf n\u00e0o?<\/h2>\n

Tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi Thanh Ni\u00ean<\/i>, TS Patrick M. Cronin (Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Hudson, M\u1ef9) cho r\u1eb1ng tr\u1eeb khi M\u1ef9 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7, n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng th\u00ec ph\u1ea3i k\u1ebft th\u00fac b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p ngo\u1ea1i giao.<\/p>\n

\n

\"Th\u1ecfa<\/p>

\n

T\u00e0u thuy\u1ec1n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ng\u00e0y 27.4<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>

\u1ea2nh: Reuters<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n

Theo TS Cronin, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump v\u1eabn lu\u00f4n cho r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i Iran, nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fang. C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia, ngh\u1ecb s\u0129 M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 \u0111i\u1ec1u qu\u00e2n tr\u00ean b\u1ed9 v\u00e0o Iran, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n kh\u1ea3 d\u0129 n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c: Ai s\u1ebd \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh Iran?<\/p>\n

“T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran s\u1ebd s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5. T\u00f4i ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd tin \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng tin \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3, nh\u01b0ng nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump th\u00ec l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1eb7t ni\u1ec1m tin nh\u01b0 v\u1eady”, TS Cronin nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng: “C\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u00f4ng tin t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o cho th\u1ea5y L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng V\u1ec7 binh C\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran (IRGC) kh\u00f4ng s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0 s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng c\u1ed1 th\u1ee7 h\u01a1n”.<\/p>\n

TS Cronin \u0111\u1eb7t ra c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi: “Ch\u00fang ta ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 g\u00ec?”.<\/p>\n

“Hai \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump mu\u1ed1n, th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz. V\u00e2ng, \u00f4ng Trump c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn, nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n d\u00f9 t\u1eebng nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng khai v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u00f9ng thu ph\u00ed. \u0110i\u1ec1u th\u1ee9 hai \u00f4ng ta ph\u1ea3i nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c x\u1eed l\u00fd nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Washington \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng, l\u00e0 Iran kh\u00f4ng x\u1eed l\u00fd nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u nguy\u00ean t\u1eed trong 20 n\u0103m. Iran s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi 20 n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian”, TS Cronin nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t v\u00e0 n\u00f3i x\u00e9t cho c\u00f9ng th\u00ec v\u1eabn c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng gi\u1eefa hai b\u00ean.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1edd nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9<\/h2>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, TS Cronin c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra: “V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i th\u1ee9 ba l\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m. V\u00e0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y t\u1eeb c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m, t\u1eeb Houthi, l\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta n\u00f3i ban \u0111\u1ea7u. \u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 h\u1ecd nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1eeb Iran, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd \u0111ang ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng theo ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ngh\u1ecb s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh. V\u00ec v\u1eady, Iran ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111\u00f3. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi: N\u1ebfu Israel ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Hezbollah \u1edf Li B\u0103ng, th\u00ec li\u1ec7u Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd duy tr\u00ec th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n hay kh\u00f4ng? Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0ng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t th\u00ec M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean Israel \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1”.<\/p>\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1eady, v\u1ecb chuy\u00ean gia n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u0111\u1eb7t ra lo ng\u1ea1i: “N\u1ebfu Iran ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh s\u1eafp \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn, r\u1ed3i ngh\u0129 l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi h\u1ecd bi\u1ebft M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn”. N\u1ebfu k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra th\u00ec c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 trung gi\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

“T\u00f4i cho r\u1eb1ng h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 M\u1ef9, IRGC. V\u00ec v\u1eady, kh\u00f4ng b\u00ean n\u00e0o mu\u1ed1n duy tr\u00ec t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y n\u1eefa, ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 Israel. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn, nh\u01b0ng x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 M\u1ef9 – Iran, b\u00ean n\u00e0o c\u0169ng mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1eafn ph\u00e1 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 th\u1ec3. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n l\u00e0 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn”, TS Cronin k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

C\u0169ng tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi Thanh Ni\u00ean<\/i>, \u00f4ng Dov Zakheim (c\u1ef1u Th\u1ee9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng B\u1ed9 Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 \u0111ang c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n cho nhi\u1ec1u c\u01a1 quan nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i) cho r\u1eb1ng: “M\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c b\u00ean n\u00e0o s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. N\u1ebfu T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9, \u00f4ng \u1ea5y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd k\u00fd k\u1ebft m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn c\u00f3 h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u1edbi th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn m\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Barack Obama t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump ki\u00ean tr\u00ec ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i – c\u1ee9 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i m\u00e3i – th\u00ec r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u00ednh ng\u01b0\u1eddi Iran s\u1ebd l\u00e0 b\u00ean ph\u1ea3i nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u uranium trong v\u00f2ng 20 n\u0103m nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m quy m\u00f4 ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh t\u00ean l\u1eeda, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t vi\u1ec7c h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nh\u00f3m Hezbollah. T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, m\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c b\u00ean n\u00e0o s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u00fap ch\u00fang ta nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft khi n\u00e0o th\u00ec cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft”. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00f4m qua 27.4, trang Axios d\u1eabn l\u1eddi quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 cho hay n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t t\u1eeb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":76117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[95],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-76116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc-the-gioi-vi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76116\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}