{"id":73298,"date":"2026-04-19T06:37:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T23:37:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-vs-gold-the-396-day-bullish-signal-just-fired-again\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T06:37:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T23:37:25","slug":"bitcoin-vs-gold-the-396-day-bullish-signal-just-fired-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoin-vs-gold-the-396-day-bullish-signal-just-fired-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin vs Gold: The 396-day bullish signal just fired again"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The BTC\/Gold ratio, which tracks Bitcoin\u2019s price relative to Gold, has just completed a technical move that has repeated with precision four times in the past ten years<\/strong>. This ratio measures relative performance \u2013 indicating which asset is winning rather than just whether prices are rising \u2013 and its recent completion of a 396-day bear cycle suggests a significant market shift could be underway<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\/Gold ratio: The 396-day cycle symmetry is back<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Bitcoin\/Gold monthly chart. Source: TradingShot on Binance Square.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Every bear cycle in the BTC\/Gold ratio since 2014 has lasted exactly 396 days<\/strong>, according to an analysis by TradingShot on Binance Square<\/u><\/a>. The current ratio peaked in January 2025 and completed its scheduled 396-day bear cycle this March. This symmetry is reinforced by the Monthly CCI technical indicator, which recently bounced off a lower-lows trendline<\/strong> that has marked every major bottom since 2015.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the ratio printed a Bearish Cross between two key moving averages. This is the exact same cross<\/strong> that appeared in November 2022, close to the bottom of the previous bear cycle. Following that 2022 cross, Bitcoin entered a long-term phase that eventually led to a significant recovery. It is important to note that this is a rotation signal rather than a sell-everything alarm<\/strong>: it suggests that Bitcoin may fall more slowly than Gold or rise faster than the precious metal from this point forward.<\/p>\n

Gold: The traditional safe haven is struggling<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Gold has not performed as the traditional safe haven<\/a><\/strong> many expected recently. While geopolitics often dominate headlines, currently Gold’s primary driver remains interest rates<\/a>. With central banks flagging inflation as a persistent risk and discussing the possibility of further rate hikes, the environment has become less favourable<\/strong> for Gold, which is a non-yielding asset.<\/p>\n

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Gold daily chart. Source: FXStreet.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There is also a structural shift occurring. Gold\u2019s massive recent rally was driven largely by its role within the so-called \u201cdebasement trade\u201d. However, that trade has recently reversed<\/strong> as investors have been selling Gold for liquidity<\/a> to cover losses, fund rising energy costs, and manage capital stress. Currently, Gold continues to trade below its 50-day SMA, and while it found a temporary bounce near $4,100, the medium-term outlook<\/a> remains a “sell-on-bounce” market.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin: Consolidations within an improving outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n

On the other side of the ratio, Bitcoin\u2019s technical picture has shown signs of improvement.<\/strong> After being trapped in a defensive range between $60,000 and $75,000 since February with low volume, the market responded positively to news<\/a> of a two-week ceasefire on April 7. Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-day EMA at $70,300 as dynamic support and subsequently climbed toward $76,000.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin daily chart. Source: FXStreet.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The market is currently consolidating above $73,000, and the breakout requires further validation.<\/strong> While optimism has returned due to diplomatic efforts, investors must remain cautious as geopolitical headlines continue to shift. The current market action shows potential, but directional conviction is still forming<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Levels to look at to confirm the rotation thesis<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The definitive trigger for this rotation thesis is a weekly close for Bitcoin above $74,000<\/strong>. A close above this resistance level would confirm the trend, whereas remaining below it suggests the recent move may only be a temporary “headline pop.” If Bitcoin fails and closes back below $70,000, the thesis is on hold, and a weekly close below $68,000 would invalidate the rotation signal entirely.<\/p>\n

Historically, after every 396-day bottom, the BTC\/Gold ratio has rallied into the next cycle<\/strong>, which typically runs six to twelve months from the signal. For those holding significant gains from Gold\u2019s multi-year run, a measured strategy involves trimming Gold profits and rotating them into Bitcoin only once the $74,000 weekly close is confirmed. This approach allows investors to capture potential asymmetry without liquidating entire positions prematurely<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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