{"id":71797,"date":"2026-04-15T09:13:01","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T02:13:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/australian-dollar-price-forecast-the-hunt-for-0-7200\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T10:41:52","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T03:41:52","slug":"du-bao-gia-do-la-uc-huong-toi-moc-07200","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/du-bao-gia-do-la-uc-huong-toi-moc-07200\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac: H\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ed1c 0,7200"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u0110\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 4 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 trong v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, gi\u00fap phe mua gi\u00e0nh l\u1ea1i quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00e0 m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 AUD\/USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec9nh trong n\u0103m g\u1ea7n v\u00f9ng 0,7200 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a c\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba cao v\u00e0 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00dac (RBA).<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u tu\u1ea7n, gi\u00fap AUD\/USD nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ed1c 0,7100 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 5 tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0o phi\u00ean th\u1ee9 Ba.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng USD, khi\u1ebfn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 US Dollar Index (DXY) gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 98,00 \u2013 m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 3. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a USD xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng h\u01a1n gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Iran, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

\u00dac: v\u1eabn v\u1eefng nh\u01b0ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i<\/h4>\n

B\u1ee9c tranh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a \u00dac nh\u00ecn chung v\u1eabn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, nh\u01b0ng \u0111ang xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n

\u1ede g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1edbn. N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u1eabn v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i so v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn dai d\u1eb3ng \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n ch\u00ednh, v\u00e0 RBA duy tr\u00ec l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u sau c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n: ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 PMI th\u00e1ng 3 cho c\u1ea3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ed1c 50, cho th\u1ea5y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang m\u1ea5t d\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady, v\u1eabn c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u00e1ng. Th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i th\u00e1ng 2 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 5,686 t\u1ef7 AUD, m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2025, trong khi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi GDP qu\u00fd 4\/2025 t\u0103ng 0,8% theo qu\u00fd v\u00e0 2,6% theo n\u0103m. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eabn v\u1eefng nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n m\u1ea1nh nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 l\u00ean 4,3% trong th\u00e1ng 2 d\u00f9 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 49 ngh\u00ecn.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea1t 3,7% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3, v\u1edbi Trimmed Mean \u1edf m\u1ee9c 3,3% v\u00e0 Weighted Median \u1edf 3,5%. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, RBA v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch cho r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u01b0a quay v\u1ec1 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau cho \u0111\u1ebfn kho\u1ea3ng gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2028.<\/p>\n

Trung Qu\u1ed1c: \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh<\/h4>\n

N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho \u00dac, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 suy gi\u1ea3m ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 4,5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong qu\u00fd cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025, trong khi doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb t\u0103ng 2,8% t\u00ednh theo n\u0103m trong hai th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i \u0111ang xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i khi th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh trong th\u00e1ng 3, xu\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n h\u01a1n 51 t\u1ef7 USD, so v\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 91 t\u1ef7 USD c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

B\u1ee9c tranh tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n qua c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng: s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c t\u1eeb C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Qu\u1ed1c gia (NBS) cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang thu h\u1eb9p, trong khi c\u00e1c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n nh\u01b0 RatingDog v\u1eabn cho th\u1ea5y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, d\u00f9 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u0169ng c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n \u201ctrung t\u00ednh\u201d n\u00e0y khi CPI t\u0103ng 1,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 2, c\u00f2n gi\u00e1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u1eabn gi\u1ea3m ph\u00e1t \u1edf m\u1ee9c -0,9% trong n\u0103m qua.<\/p>\n

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ec7n gi\u1ed1ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e2n d\u00e2n Trung Qu\u1ed1c (PBoC) nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (LPR) d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c 3,00% v\u00e0 3,50% trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

RBA: v\u1eabn nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d, nh\u01b0ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m<\/p>\n

RBA \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1ea5t s\u00edt sao trong cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 5\u20134 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch (OCR) l\u00ean 4,10%. S\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n

Tuy v\u1eady, th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i: c\u00e1c r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c v\u1eabn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1eef \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Trong bu\u1ed5i h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o, Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Michele Bullock nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1eabn c\u00f2n qu\u00e1 n\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec3m thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u1eb1m \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi xem x\u00e9t t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ec5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y, cho th\u1ea5y tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n h\u01a1n. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u0169ng \u0111ang t\u1ea1o th\u00eam l\u1edbp b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh cho l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a RBA.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u00eam c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n 52 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng th\u00eam v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

V\u1ecb th\u1ebf AUD: v\u1eabn nghi\u00eang Long nh\u01b0ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng AUD v\u1eabn \u0111ang nghi\u00eang m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda mua, d\u00f9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t cho tu\u1ea7n k\u1ebft th\u00fac ng\u00e0y 7\/4 cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf mua r\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m phi th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng quanh 70.000 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng, cho th\u1ea5y nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u thu h\u1eb9p sau giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u00edch l\u0169y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i k\u1ec3 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c khi AUD\/USD gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 0,6970 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y, l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 gi\u1eefa v\u1ecb th\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1. D\u00f9 t\u00e2m l\u00fd chung v\u1eabn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, open interest c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m, cho th\u1ea5y nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111ang \u0111\u00f3ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u. T\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, \u0111\u00e2y gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 tham gia h\u01a1n l\u00e0 thay \u0111\u1ed5i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn AUD d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng: n\u1ebfu b\u1ee9c tranh kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn h\u01a1n kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb thanh l\u00fd v\u1ecb th\u1ebf mua v\u1eabn c\u00f2n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ebfu USD l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng AUD\/USD: c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng thi\u1ebfu ni\u1ec1m tin<\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u2013 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng:<\/h3>\n

C\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ed1c 0,7100 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. \u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1c sau khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ed1c n\u00e0y. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c USD ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t.<\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng \u2013 nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn:<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. N\u1ebfu kh\u1ea9u v\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n, gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t 0,7100 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c, h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 0,7200 v\u00e0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u1ea3m \u2013 r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eabn c\u00f2n:<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u v\u1eabn hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu n\u1ebfu t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u1ea5u \u0111i, USD m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean ho\u1eb7c n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c suy y\u1ebfu. Vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ed1c 0,7000 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u00e2u h\u01a1n, h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 0,6900.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e0 t\u0103ng l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1eadt, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n mong manh. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7n th\u00eam s\u1ef1 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi AUD\/USD hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i<\/p>\n

Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n: \u0111\u1ed3ng USD, t\u00e2m l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro chung v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tin t\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1edbi s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft ch\u00ednh. Cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u quan tr\u1ecdng t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, bao g\u1ed3m GDP, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

R\u1ee7i ro: s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c, l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d h\u01a1n t\u1eeb C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed), ho\u1eb7c b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a RBA \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn AUD bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/h4>\n

Tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ng\u00e0y, AUD\/USD giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ea1i 0,7145, duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c khi gi\u00e1 n\u1eb1m tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n (SMA) 55, 100 v\u00e0 200 ng\u00e0y, t\u1eadp trung trong v\u00f9ng kho\u1ea3ng 0,67\u20130,70. \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng, v\u1edbi RSI (14) dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh v\u00f9ng th\u1ea5p 60, cho th\u1ea5y l\u1ef1c mua v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec, trong khi ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o ADX (14) c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

\u1ede ph\u00eda tr\u00ean, kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t n\u1eb1m t\u1ea1i 0,7188, n\u01a1i h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c Fibonacci projection v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 ngang tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, ti\u1ebfp theo l\u00e0 0,7283 v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 0,7661. \u1ede ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi, h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ban \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i SMA 55 ng\u00e0y quanh 0,7031, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1edfi m\u1ee9c Fibonacci 23,6% t\u1ea1i 0,7007. V\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 s\u00e2u h\u01a1n n\u1eb1m quanh 0,6895\u20130,6874, n\u01a1i m\u1ee9c Fibonacci 38,2% tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi SMA 100 ng\u00e0y, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u1ebfn v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c Fibonacci 50% v\u00e0 61,8% c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi SMA 200 ng\u00e0y trong kho\u1ea3ng 0,68\u20130,67.<\/p>\n

\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)<\/em><\/p>\n

K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: t\u00edch c\u1ef1c nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn<\/h4>\n

B\u1ee9c tranh t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac v\u1eabn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, v\u00e0 RBA kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap t\u1ea1o n\u1ec1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho AUD tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, AUD th\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t khi t\u00e2m l\u00fd nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, c\u00f2n khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n, USD l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i v\u1ecb th\u1ebf. V\u00ec v\u1eady, d\u00f9 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n kh\u00e1 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u1eabn c\u00f2n kh\u00f3 \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p v\u1ec1 RBA<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00dac (RBA) thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 cho \u00dac. C\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1edfi h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c trong 11 cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp m\u1ed7i n\u0103m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp kh\u1ea9n khi c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft. Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a RBA l\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, t\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong kho\u1ea3ng 2\u20133%, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u201cg\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u00dac\u201d. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 AUD v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. Ngo\u00e0i ra, RBA c\u00f2n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE) v\u00e0 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QT).<\/p>\n

Truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c cho ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00ec l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n. V\u1edbi \u00dac, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y gi\u00fap t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi AUD.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u0129 m\u00f4 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 GDP, PMI s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u2013 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn AUD. M\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn RBA t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, qua \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n

N\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 d\u00f9ng trong c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. QE l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh RBA t\u1ea1o th\u00eam ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec3 mua t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ho\u1eb7c doanh nghi\u1ec7p), qua \u0111\u00f3 b\u01a1m thanh kho\u1ea3n v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u2013 th\u01b0\u1eddng khi\u1ebfn AUD suy y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

Th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QT) l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a QE, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n khi kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng. Trong QT, RBA ng\u1eebng mua th\u00eam t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n thu h\u1ed3i t\u1eeb tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho AUD.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 4 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 trong v\u00e0i […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":71798,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-71797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71797","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71797"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71797\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":72058,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71797\/revisions\/72058"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71798"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71797"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71797"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71797"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}