{"id":67589,"date":"2026-04-03T08:49:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T01:49:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/su-that-phia-sau-cu-sap-cua-vang-giua-con-bao-bat-on\/"},"modified":"2026-04-03T09:04:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-03T02:04:10","slug":"su-that-phia-sau-cu-sap-cua-vang-giua-con-bao-bat-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/su-that-phia-sau-cu-sap-cua-vang-giua-con-bao-bat-on\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u1ef1 th\u1eadt ph\u00eda sau c\u00fa s\u1eadp c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng gi\u1eefa c\u01a1n b\u00e3o b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Trong m\u1eaft gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, v\u00e0ng t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u201cn\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n\u201d m\u1ed7i khi th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi chao \u0111\u1ea3o. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra l\u1ea1i khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi: v\u00ec sao gi\u1eefa l\u00fac xung \u0111\u1ed9t leo thang v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7y b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng l\u1ea1i lao d\u1ed1c?<\/p>\n

\u2018\u00d4 che m\u01b0a\u2019 hay \u2018h\u1ea7m tr\u00fa b\u00e3o\u2019?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 1\/2026, gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng<\/a> t\u1eebng thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed g\u1ea7n 5.600 USD\/ounce, g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Nh\u01b0ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 20% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb, tr\u01b0\u1ee3t d\u00e0i ngay khi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng: chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u1eddng khi\u1ebfn v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, do nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ecm n\u01a1i \u201ctr\u00fa \u1ea9n\u201d kh\u1ecfi r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n

Tuy v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu nh\u00ecn d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 300% trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb1ng sau \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng: \u201ct\u00e0i ch\u00ednh h\u00f3a\u201d (financialisation<\/em>), t\u1ee9c vi\u1ec7c v\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch qua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p nh\u01b0 qu\u1ef9 ETF (qu\u1ef9 ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i danh m\u1ee5c) hay ph\u00e1i sinh, thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

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V\u00e0ng b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o khi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i hy sinh c\u1ea3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n an to\u00e0n \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ee9u danh m\u1ee5c. \u1ea2nh: The Conversation<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n, c\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t hai kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m quan tr\u1ecdng trong \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0: t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 (hedge<\/em>) v\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n (safe haven<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c lu\u00f4n mang \u00f4 m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t \u0111i c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i.<\/p>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n l\u1ea1i gi\u1ed1ng m\u1ed9t h\u1ea7m tr\u00fa b\u00e3o, ch\u1ec9 ph\u00e1t huy t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng khi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

V\u00e0ng t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u1ebfp v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m th\u1ee9 hai. Trong cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u 2008, hay khi M\u1ef9 b\u1ecb h\u1ea1 b\u1eadc t\u00edn nhi\u1ec7m n\u0103m 2011, v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh vai tr\u00f2 \u201ctr\u00fa \u1ea9n\u201d, gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u00e1c. Nh\u01b0ng b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i.<\/p>\n

C\u00fa s\u1ed1c d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf: \u2018K\u1ebb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 quy lu\u1eadt\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Theo ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Rand Low, \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Bond (Australia), th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed b\u1ecb t\u00e0n ph\u00e1, k\u00e9o theo h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 lan r\u1ed9ng kh\u1eafp n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i.<\/p>\n

Trong nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, quy lu\u1eadt \u201cd\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ea1y v\u00e0o v\u00e0ng\u201d kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u00fang tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0ng b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 3 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n then ch\u1ed1t l\u00fd gi\u1ea3i v\u00ec sao gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh ngay gi\u1eefa l\u00fac kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng leo thang.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft l\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n. Khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u01a1i v\u00e0o tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n b\u1edbt t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp thua l\u1ed7 \u1edf c\u00e1c k\u00eanh kh\u00e1c ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng c\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u b\u1ed5 sung k\u00fd qu\u1ef9 (margin call<\/em>).<\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0ng, v\u1edbi vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh thanh kho\u1ea3n cao, d\u1ec5 mua b\u00e1n th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb \u201chy sinh\u201d \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng thu v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t.<\/p>\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi sau \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng n\u00f3ng. Sau khi t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, v\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n

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Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng lao d\u1ed1c kho\u1ea3ng 20%; trong c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng b\u1ecb lu m\u1edd tr\u01b0\u1edbc nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf. \u1ea2nh: The Conversation<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Khi b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n gia t\u0103ng, thay v\u00ec ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c n\u1eafm gi\u1eef, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u00e1n ra \u0111\u1ec3 \u201ckh\u00f3a\u201d l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng danh m\u1ee5c, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi r\u1ee7i ro th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a v\u00e0ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u. N\u1ebfu d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf l\u00e0 \u201cm\u00e1u\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu cho v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00ec v\u00e0ng l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 d\u1ea7u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd. Ch\u00ednh \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u01b0u ti\u00ean nh\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Khi v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u2018\u0111\u1ee9ng ngo\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c n\u1eb1m \u1edf c\u00e1ch con ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o v\u00e0ng. Ng\u00e0y nay, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 mua v\u00e0ng v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 mua c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u201cgi\u1ea5y\u201d nh\u01b0 qu\u1ef9 ETF hay h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ph\u00e1i sinh. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean g\u1eafn ch\u1eb7t h\u01a1n v\u1edbi h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

H\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ng\u00e0y nay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ea3 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu trong c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t danh m\u1ee5c, thay v\u00ec xem ch\u00fang l\u00e0 hai k\u00eanh t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n

Khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f9ng ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c v\u00e0ng c\u0169ng b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng b\u00e1n th\u00e1o. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c v\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t kh\u1ecfi r\u1ee7i ro nh\u01b0 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111ang l\u00e0m lung lay m\u1ed9t ni\u1ec1m tin l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi: v\u00e0ng lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf cho th\u1ea5y, v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn c\u00f3 vai tr\u00f2 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 \u201ct\u1ea5m khi\u00ean b\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 x\u00e2m ph\u1ea1m\u201d. Trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb cu\u1ed1n v\u00e0o v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y b\u00e1n th\u00e1o.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc quan tr\u1ecdng cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0o an to\u00e0n tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. Ngay c\u1ea3 v\u00e0ng v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00e0ng ngh\u00ecn n\u0103m c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i th\u00edch nghi v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u00e0 li\u00ean k\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd.<\/p>\n

Theo The Conversation<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trong m\u1eaft gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, v\u00e0ng t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u201cn\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n\u201d m\u1ed7i khi […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":67592,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vang"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67589"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67806,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67589\/revisions\/67806"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}