{"id":67401,"date":"2026-04-02T09:48:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T02:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/asia-fx-cautious-risk-tone-with-peace-doubts-mufg\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T09:48:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T02:48:10","slug":"asia-fx-cautious-risk-tone-with-peace-doubts-mufg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/asia-fx-cautious-risk-tone-with-peace-doubts-mufg\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia FX: Cautious risk tone with peace doubts \u2013 MUFG"},"content":{"rendered":"
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MUFG\u2019s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan notes that Asian currencies recovered as risk sentiment improved following comments from US President Trump on ending the Iran war, even as Oil prices stayed elevated. He remains skeptical that a durable peace deal is near and advises caution in positioning, highlighting China\u2019s diplomatic role and the broader geopolitical risks for Asia FX and the Dollar.<\/p>\n

Risk rally meets geopolitical skepticism<\/h2>\n

“Markets rallied and turned risk on, as US President Trump said that he foresaw the US ending the war on Iran within 2-3 weeks, while the WSJ also reported that the US administration is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s President Pezeshkian stated that Iran is prepared to end the war if Iran receive guarantees.”<\/p>\n

“The risk on sentiment and consequently Dollar weakness and recovery in Asian currencies were happening even as oil prices remained elevated with strikes and damages on Russia\u2019s Ust-Luga Port potentially endangering 45% of Russia\u2019s export capacity even if temporarily, and US-Israel strikes in Iran\u2019s Qeshm Island in the Hormuz Strait. “<\/p>\n

“We remain quite skeptical for now that a pathway to a durable peace deal can be reached for a few reasons, even as both sides have openly stated that they want to end the war. First, the comments from Iran\u2019s President Pezeshkian is not entirely new, and the more important point is how to end the war and on whose terms \u2013 Iran, the US or others.”<\/p>\n

“Second, the overall power structure in Iran suggests that it\u2019s not President Pezeshkian who is in charge but rather a more hardline regime in the Iran Revolutionary Guards, and certainly the key message from the war is that the Strait of Hormuz is an important leverage<\/a> for Iran and they will as such want to extract their pound of flesh from any agreement.”<\/p>\n

“Third, even if the US were to unilaterally leave the Middle East as suggested by news<\/a> reports, but to our minds this seems like an extremely unstable equilibrium with various actors including the Gulf States and Israel unlikely to take the status quo as it stands, while there is also the longer-term question around Iran\u2019s nuclear weapon capabilities and capacities.”<\/p>\n

“We as such would remain cautious in positioning and markets for now, but nonetheless we think that China\u2019s potential involvement even if indirectly through diplomatic channels for now is important and a key for how things could evolve.”<\/p>\n

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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