{"id":66318,"date":"2026-03-30T08:48:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T01:48:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/ba-kich-ban-gia-dau-thi-truong-tai-chinh-toan-cau-dung-truoc-con-song-lon\/"},"modified":"2026-03-30T08:48:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T01:48:42","slug":"ba-kich-ban-gia-dau-thi-truong-tai-chinh-toan-cau-dung-truoc-con-song-lon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/ba-kich-ban-gia-dau-thi-truong-tai-chinh-toan-cau-dung-truoc-con-song-lon\/","title":{"rendered":"Ba k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u01a1n s\u00f3ng l\u1edbn"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, c\u1eeda ng\u00f5 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng 20% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n cao \u0111\u1ed9. M\u1ed7i tin t\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ngu\u1ed3n cung cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Theo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEA), l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 20% t\u1ed5ng cung th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, g\u1ea5p kho\u1ea3ng 10 l\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t t\u1eebng x\u1ea3y ra trong cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t Nga – Ukraine hay n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn Libya. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i n\u00e0o tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u201cb\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng\u201d quen thu\u1ed9c: \u0111\u1ed3ng USD m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n

\"H\u00ecnh<\/picture>
Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 l\u00ean 150-160 USD\/th\u00f9ng. \u1ea2nh: Xinhua<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

V\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng USD, n\u00ean khi \u0111\u1ed3ng USD t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, v\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u1eaft h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 d\u00f9ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n t\u00ecm \u0111\u1ebfn USD v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n thay v\u00ec v\u00e0ng, n\u00ean gi\u00e1 kim lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n

Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb lo ng\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t leo thang v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0, d\u00f9 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u<\/a> l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 xung \u0111\u1ed9t Nga-Ukraine, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a USD v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu, cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i.<\/p>\n

3 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra 3 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi, m\u1ed7i k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ri\u00eang \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n bi quan, n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Hormuz k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 5\/2026, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea1m 150-160 USD\/th\u00f9ng.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Trong t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng Fed s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam 0,75 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m (75bp), k\u00e9o l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 2 n\u0103m l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 4,5%.\u00a0<\/p>\n

C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c, trong khi \u0111\u1ed3ng USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 nh\u1edd d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u00ecm n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u01b0ng v\u00e0ng c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m, nh\u01b0ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n

\"H\u00ecnh<\/picture>
M\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ee5 n\u1eef \u0111i qua tr\u1ea1m x\u0103ng \u1edf London (Anh) ng\u00e0y 18\/3\/2026 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt sau xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng n\u1ed5 ra, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u1ea2nh: Xinhua<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai, n\u1ebfu k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n trung t\u00ednh, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng 100-120 USD\/th\u00f9ng, xung \u0111\u1ed9t t\u1ea1i Hormuz k\u1ebft th\u00fac trong th\u00e1ng 5\/2026. Trong t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng n\u00e0y, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng duy tr\u00ec tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1eb9, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 \u201c\u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1ea5t\u201d trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh, gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh danh m\u1ee5c m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n l\u1ea1c quan l\u00e0 eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf c\u1eeda tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 80-100 USD\/th\u00f9ng. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng USD r\u01a1i xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ed1c 99, trong khi c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/p>\n

Trong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y, Fed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 1-2 l\u1ea7n trong n\u0103m, t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i trong c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu, qu\u1ef9 ETF v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ee3 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 tinh th\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0nh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n lan t\u1ecfa ra to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.\u00a0<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1edbn cho \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, vi\u1ec7c quan s\u00e1t di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, theo d\u00f5i gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh k\u1ecbp th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u01a1n s\u00f3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn, khi 3 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o theo nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, vi\u1ec7c chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb s\u1eb5n c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n, theo d\u00f5i s\u00e1t di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, s\u1ebd quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u1eeba b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 danh m\u1ee5c, v\u1eeba n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u. Nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ch\u1ec9 mang t\u00ednh tham kh\u1ea3o; \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 linh ho\u1ea1t v\u00e0 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n.<\/p>\n

Theo JRJ.com<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/picture><\/a> <\/p>\n
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Gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, c\u00f3 lo\u1ea1i h\u1ea1 t\u1edbi h\u01a1n 4.000 \u0111\u1ed3ng\/l\u00edt<\/a>Gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u trong k\u1ef3 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ng\u00e0y 25\/3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, x\u0103ng RON95-III v\u1ec1 d\u01b0\u1edbi 30.000 \u0111\u1ed3ng\/l\u00edt. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u diesel v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u h\u1ecfa c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, c\u1eeda ng\u00f5 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng 20% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}