{"id":62772,"date":"2026-03-09T11:17:14","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T04:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-correlation-with-tech-stocks-overblown-nydig\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T11:17:14","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T04:17:14","slug":"bitcoin-correlation-with-tech-stocks-overblown-nydig","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoin-correlation-with-tech-stocks-overblown-nydig\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin correlation with tech stocks overblown: NYDIG"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin\u2019s recent parallel movement with US software stocks is more of a case of shared exposure to macro events, rather than any structural convergence, according to financial services company NYDIG.<\/p>\n

In the past week, Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) rallied alongside US software stocks<\/a>, leading many to claim the cryptocurrency was a proxy for the sector, Greg Cipolaro, the head of research at NYDIG, said<\/a> in a note on Friday.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the visual fit of their indexed price is compelling, the conclusion that Bitcoin and software equities have structurally converged, or that they share common exposure to themes such as AI or quantum risk, is overstated,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Cipolaro added the tandem rally \u201cmore plausibly reflects shared exposure to the current macro regime, specifically long-duration, liquidity-sensitive risk assets, rather than evidence of a structural convergence between Bitcoin and software equities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s price is \u201cunexplained by equities\u201d<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with software stocks<\/a> has increased on a 90-day rolling basis since its all-time high above $126,000 in early October, but Cipolaro said its correlations with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also recently risen, indicating that \u201cthe change is not isolated to software stocks.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, even with Bitcoin\u2019s correlations<\/a> to software stocks and the two indices, \u201cthe majority of Bitcoin\u2019s price movement remains unexplained by equities,\u201d Cipolaro added.<\/p>\n

He said that, statistically measured, only a quarter of Bitcoin\u2019s price movements are explained by a correlation to the stock market, while at least 75% of its movements are affected by drivers outside traditional stock indices.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s correlation with major indices on a 90-day rolling basis. Source: <\/em>NYDIG<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Cipolaro said it appears Bitcoin is not being priced as a hedge against macroeconomic conditions<\/a>, which explains \u201cthe ongoing frustration around Bitcoin\u2019s failure to \u2018act like gold\u2019 despite the digital gold label.\u201d<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin drops 2% as oil prices surge on energy shortage fears<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

He added that traders appear to be allocating to assets along a risk curve, rather than buying Bitcoin for a \u201cdistinct monetary thesis.\u201d<\/p>\n