{"id":61603,"date":"2026-02-24T10:29:59","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:29:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoins-slide-to-64000-is-a-macro-shock-not-a-market-breakdown\/"},"modified":"2026-02-24T10:29:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T03:29:59","slug":"bitcoins-slide-to-64000-is-a-macro-shock-not-a-market-breakdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoins-slide-to-64000-is-a-macro-shock-not-a-market-breakdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Slide to $64,000 Is a &#8216;Macro Shock,&#8217; Not a Market Breakdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<h4 color=\"#333\">In brief<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Bitcoin hit $63,822, extending Monday\u2019s losses, amid a tariff-driven market slide. <\/li>\n<li>A 50% drawdown from the peak doesn\u2019t mean the leading crypto cycle is broken, Decrypt was told.<\/li>\n<li>A drop to $55,000 is possible even as the structural demand remains intact<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Bitcoin&#8217;s drop to $64,000 is the result of compounding macro shocks landing on a market carrying significant leverage\u2014not a structural breakdown of the cycle, according to analysts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The leading crypto slipped to $63,822 on Tuesday, extending weekly losses to 6.4%, according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/price\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\"><span>CoinGecko<\/span><\/a><span>. It now trades roughly 50% below its $126,080 all-time high set five months ago, as digital asset investment products log their <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/358825\/crypto-funds-shed-4b-across-five-week-negative-streak\" target=\"_blank\"><span>fifth consecutive week<\/span><\/a><span> of outflows.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The selloff tests whether Bitcoin&#8217;s four-year cycle remains intact or if shifting macro conditions have permanently altered its trajectory, with experts pointing to trade policy, rates, and leverage as culprits, not broken fundamentals.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;Bitcoin&#8217;s drop below $64,000 was not a single event,&#8221; Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span>. &#8220;It was the result of several macro shocks landing over time on a market carrying significant leverage built up from its October 2025 all-time high.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Lucas pointed to President Trump&#8217;s decision to raise global tariffs to 15% as the starting point, which rattled risk assets broadly. &#8220;Despite the &#8216;digital gold&#8217; narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk asset,&#8221; she said. &#8220;When macro fear spikes, capital rotates toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is not there yet.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The Federal Reserve\u2019s inaction has compounded the pressure, with the odds of a no-rate-cut rising to 96%, according to CME\u2019s FedWatch tool.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Sticky inflation is reinforcing that scenario amid a higher-for-longer regime, which has continued to weigh on risk assets. Investors turning up leverage on Bitcoin, as noted in a previous <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i> <a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/358134\/bitcoin-leverage-heats-up-as-traders-bet-on-price-rebound\" target=\"_blank\"><span>report<\/span><\/a><span>, has not helped with the recovery.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, echoed the macro-driven diagnosis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;Bitcoin&#8217;s price fall does not suggest a structural breakdown but reflects a combination of macro-driven pressures, including renewed tariff escalations, risk-off sentiment across equities and crypto, and persistent negative ETF flows,&#8221; he told <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>ETF flows have turned negative for five straight weeks, with $4 billion in outflows and trading volume at its lowest since July 2025, <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span> previously <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/358825\/crypto-funds-shed-4b-across-five-week-negative-streak\" target=\"_blank\"><span>reported<\/span><\/a><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;Pessimistic rate cut expectations, fears of U.S. government shutdown, and now tariffs push prices down as trading entities recalibrate,&#8221; Justin d&#8217;Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span>. &#8220;But this might also force miners to sell to keep operations going, as rewards are worth less than, or are very close to, production cost.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 color=\"#333\"><b>Looking ahead<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span>The conversation around four-year cycles has gone quiet, Lucas said, explaining that if the cycle holds, \u201c2025 was the peak year, and 2026 represents the correction and base-building phase before the next accumulation cycle begins toward 2027 and 2028.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Despite a 50% drawdown from the cycle peak, Lucas maintains that Bitcoin\u2019s cycle has \u201cnot broken\u201d the trend and that &#8220;it is simply doing what it has always done.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Still, the near-term outlook isn\u2019t optimistic, experts told <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span>. They see an extension of the ongoing correction, but emphasize an intact structural foundation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ruck expects &#8220;eventual stabilization in the mid-$60,000 range followed by a gradual recovery,&#8221; noting that historical patterns show Bitcoin often finds strong support at realized price levels during corrections before resuming upward momentum driven by its scarcity narrative and institutional adoption.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>D&#8217;Anethan acknowledged that the realized price at $55,000 was \u201cdefinitely not out of reach,&#8221; considering the current uncertain environment. &#8220;One might point out that once you&#8217;re 50% down, going sub-$60,000 won&#8217;t make that much difference and might just be an even better time to be averaging in.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3>Daily Debrief Newsletter<\/h3>\n<p>Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In brief Bitcoin hit $63,822, extending Monday\u2019s losses, amid a tariff-driven market slide. A 50% drawdown from the peak doesn\u2019t [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":61604,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61603"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61603\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61604"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}