{"id":59319,"date":"2026-01-14T10:11:36","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T03:11:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-decouples-from-global-liquidity-analyst-says-quantum-threat-behind-it\/"},"modified":"2026-01-14T10:11:36","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T03:11:36","slug":"bitcoin-decouples-from-global-liquidity-analyst-says-quantum-threat-behind-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoin-decouples-from-global-liquidity-analyst-says-quantum-threat-behind-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Decouples From Global Liquidity: Analyst Says Quantum Threat Behind It"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin has decoupled from the global M2 supply for the first time. Here\u2019s what could be the reason for it, according to the founder of Capriole Investments.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Has Diverged From The Global M2 Supply Trend<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about how Bitcoin has decoupled from the global liquidity flows recently. Below is the chart cited by Edwards, which compares the year-over-year (YoY) percentage change in BTC to that in the global M2 supply<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
Looks like the two metrics have gone different ways in recent months | Source: @caprioleio on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As displayed in the graph, Bitcoin\u2019s YoY change flatlined over 2025 while the total money supply of the world\u2019s major economies witnessed growth, indicating BTC diverged from traditional liquidity flows.<\/p>\n

In the past, the cryptocurrency\u2019s YoY percentage change has generally showcased a similar trajectory to the global M2 supply. \u201cThis is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows,\u201d noted the analyst.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the reason behind this new trend? According to Edwards, it\u2019s the threat posed by quantum computing<\/a> to the network. Quantum computers are hypothesized to have the capability to break the cryptocurrency\u2019s cryptography, with wallets from the blockchain\u2019s early days being especially vulnerable.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s uncertain when quantum machines will find a breakthrough, but the Capriole founder believes BTC passed into a \u201cQuantum Event Horizon\u201d in 2025. \u201cThe timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin\u2019s cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin,\u201d said Edwards.<\/p>\n

In theory, a party with a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could break into old dormant wallets and dump the coins on the market. This would not only directly impact BTC\u2019s price but could also undermine broader trust in the cryptocurrency itself.<\/p>\n

\u201cMoney is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly,\u201d explained the analyst. One X user countered that most investors don\u2019t seem to agree with Edwards\u2019 quantum timeline, suggesting that the market would be unlikely to decouple based on a view not widely shared.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you listen to all in bitcoin maxis on X you would think that,\u201d Edwards replied to the user. \u201cIf you talk to real capital allocators and Bitcoin OGs in the space 7+ years in private \u2013 they are all considering this risk.\u201d<\/p>\n

In some other news, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs)<\/a> have continued to face weak demand recently, as data from SoSoValue<\/a> shows.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
How the weekly spot ETF netflow has changed during the last two years | Source: SoSoValue<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

From the above chart, it\u2019s visible that last week saw $681 million exit from the US Bitcoin spot ETFs. The new week has started with inflows so far, but it only remains to be seen whether they will continue in the coming days.<\/p>\n

BTC Price<\/h2>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,100, up nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The price of the coin seems to have been consolidating | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin has decoupled from the global M2 supply for the first time. Here\u2019s what could be the reason for it, […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":59321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59321"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}