{"id":58995,"date":"2026-01-09T09:40:26","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T02:40:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-to-hit-2-9m-by-2050-as-it-muscles-into-global-trade-vaneck\/"},"modified":"2026-01-09T09:40:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T02:40:26","slug":"bitcoin-to-hit-2-9m-by-2050-as-it-muscles-into-global-trade-vaneck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoin-to-hit-2-9m-by-2050-as-it-muscles-into-global-trade-vaneck\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin to hit $2.9M by 2050 as it muscles into global trade: VanEck"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 once it becomes a settlement currency for international and domestic trade and makes its way into more central bank reserves, analysts at asset manager VanEck predict.<\/p>\n

The $2.9 million price target assumes a 15% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) settling 5-10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050, according<\/a> to VanEck\u2019s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel and senior investment analyst, Patrick Bush.<\/p>\n

Global liquidity expansion and monetary debasement would be the primary drivers of Bitcoin\u2019s price rise, they said in a note on Thursday: \u201cBitcoin is not a tactical trade in this framework; it functions as a long-duration hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile short-term price action remains a function of global liquidity cycles and leverage, the long-term value accrual will be driven by Bitcoin\u2019s convergence with the structural deficiencies of the sovereign debt system.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Sigel and Bush estimated that central banks could hold 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin, while a $2.9 million price would imply that Bitcoin represents 1.66% of the world\u2019s financial assets.<\/p>\n

The $2.9 million price point was VanEck\u2019s base case, while a bear scenario sees a 2% CAGR to $130,000 and a bull scenario a 20% CAGR to $52.4 million.<\/p>\n

Key assumptions for Bitcoin in base, bear, and bull scenarios for 2050. Source: <\/em>VanEck<\/em><\/a>
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Bitcoin is already being used in global trade,<\/a> particularly in sanctioned countries like Venezuela, <\/a>Iran and Russia, but has seen little adoption among G7 countries.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin would surpass some of today\u2019s major currencies<\/h2>\n

Data<\/a> from SWIFT, the largest international payments network, shows the US dollar<\/a> accounted for 47.8% of international trade as of September 2025, followed by the Euro and British Pound at 22.8% and 7.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n