{"id":58509,"date":"2026-01-06T11:35:04","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T04:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-gains-momentum-as-traders-look-for-confirmation\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T11:35:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T04:35:04","slug":"bitcoin-gains-momentum-as-traders-look-for-confirmation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoin-gains-momentum-as-traders-look-for-confirmation\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Gains Momentum as Traders Look for Confirmation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<h4 color=\"#333\">In brief<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Bitcoin extended a January rebound, but positioning in perpetual futures has remained flat, leaving analysts cautious about the strength of the move.<\/li>\n<li>Futures and spot signals point to limited conviction, with open interest well below prior peaks, an ask-skewed order book, and weak U.S. spot demand.<\/li>\n<li>Options markets have turned more constructive, though analysts say recent upside interest reflects short-covering and volatility trades rather than fresh directional bets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>Bitcoin\u2019s ascent since the start of 2026 has pushed it close to $95,000, its highest level in six weeks. Although the general crypto market outlook is improving, a closer look at the top crypto shows flat perpetuals contract positioning, leaving analysts cautiously optimistic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The top crypto reached a peak of $94,420 on Monday, marking a 7.7% surge from the year-to-date opening price of $87,611, according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/price\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\"><span>CoinGecko<\/span><\/a><span> data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Despite the relief rally, Bitcoin\u2019s aggregated open interest remains flat, around $31.4 billion, or roughly 34% lower than October 10\u2019s $47.8 billion, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/asset\/btc\/chart\/derivatives\/open-interest?exchange=all_exchange&#038;symbol=all_symbol&#038;window=DAY&#038;sma=0&#038;ema=0&#038;priceScale=log&#038;metricScale=linear&#038;chartStyle=line\" target=\"_blank\"><span>CryptoQuant<\/span><\/a><span> data shows.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Although new positions are contributing to the rally, investor positioning remains well below that at the previous market peak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The run-up from January 2 has been accompanied by an ask-skewed order book at 5% and 10% depth from the current price, indicating that sellers are in control, according to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/tv\/snapshot\/Binance_BTCUSDT\/568dbcf766194d25b95c26d6a8fe7519\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>CoinGlass<\/span><\/a><span> data. The Coinbase Premium indicator has also remained largely negative, suggesting that spot demand for Bitcoin among U.S. investors is weak.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>While perpetual positioning may be shaky, the options market shows a more promising shift. The 7-day 25-delta skew, a premium for downside protection, recently flipped positive, suggesting the recovery has alleviated the need for bearish bets. The 30-day skew remains negative but is close to zero, per <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.deribit.com\/statistics\/BTC\/options-data\" target=\"_blank\"><span>Deribit<\/span><\/a><span> data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cOn the options front, positioning has turned increasingly constructive with a reduction in put skew across all tenors and with more than 3,000 contracts of 30 Jan 2026 $100,000 calls purchased since last week,\u201d according to Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital\u2019s Monday <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.qcpgroup.com\/insights\/asia-colour-183\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span>note<\/span><\/a><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Still, QCP analysts struck a cautious note, saying much of the recent demand for upside exposure came through options trades designed to profit from large price moves in either direction.<\/p>\n<p>That activity suggests Bitcoin\u2019s rebound was driven in part by short-covering, as traders rushed to close out bearish bets rather than by fresh, conviction buying.<\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cThe backdrop is supportive: January ETF flows have been strong, led by institutional demand, and major wealth platforms are widening access,\u201d Rachael Lucas, Crypto Analyst at BTC Markets, told <\/span><i><span>Decrypt<\/span><\/i><span>. \u201cSeasonality helps too; the Santa rally carried momentum into January, and Q1 typically favours risk assets when liquidity is supportive.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>However, Lucas maintains a cautious stance, suggesting that traders monitor the downside, particularly the $92,000 and $90,000 levels, should ETF inflows fade or macroeconomic conditions turn hawkish.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cFor now, the bid feels earned, but any break above $95,000 needs volume; if it&#8217;s thin, expect profit taking before the next leg,\u201d Lucas said.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3>Daily Debrief Newsletter<\/h3>\n<p>Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In brief Bitcoin extended a January rebound, but positioning in perpetual futures has remained flat, leaving analysts cautious about the [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":58511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58509\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}