{"id":58152,"date":"2025-12-30T14:29:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T07:29:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/kinh-te-the-gioi-2025-gia-vang-bac-lap-ky-luc-rui-ro-he-thong-gia-tang\/"},"modified":"2025-12-30T14:29:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T07:29:22","slug":"kinh-te-the-gioi-2025-gia-vang-bac-lap-ky-luc-rui-ro-he-thong-gia-tang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/kinh-te-the-gioi-2025-gia-vang-bac-lap-ky-luc-rui-ro-he-thong-gia-tang\/","title":{"rendered":"Kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi 2025: Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng, b\u1ea1c l\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gia t\u0103ng"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi<\/a> n\u0103m 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u0103m 2025 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u00f5 n\u00e9t nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng cao v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt t\u1eeb l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o (AI) b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng k\u1ebft th\u00fac n\u0103m \u1edf m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng 4.450-4.550 USD\/ounce, t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 70% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1970. Gi\u00e1 b\u1ea1c t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt kho\u1ea3ng 160-170%, ch\u1ea1m ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 75-79 USD\/ounce, nh\u1edd nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p t\u1eeb pin n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7t tr\u1eddi, xe \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u00e0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u AI. Gi\u00e1 b\u1ea1ch kim c\u0169ng t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u01b0\u1ee3t 2.400 USD\/ounce, t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 2,6 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu do ngu\u1ed3n cung th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u1ea1i Nam Phi v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb ng\u00e0nh \u00f4 t\u00f4.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i trong n\u0103m 2025, song v\u1eabn tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n suy tho\u00e1i tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng. Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IMF) d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 3% trong n\u0103m 2025, gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c so v\u1edbi 2024 nh\u01b0ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn ban \u0111\u1ea7u, v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 3,1% cho n\u0103m 2026. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c 4,2%, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 3 l\u1ea7n trong n\u0103m 2025, \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 3,5-3,75% (v\u1edbi l\u1ea7n c\u1eaft cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12) sau chu k\u1ef3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 2%. Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

\"Kinhtethegioi2025.png\"<\/picture>
Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u kim lo\u1ea1i c\u00f9ng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 d\u1ed3n d\u1eadp l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh trong n\u0103m 2025.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

N\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t. N\u1ee3 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u neo quanh 235% GDP, cao h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch. N\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng M\u1ef9 v\u01b0\u1ee3t 38 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD. M\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n n\u0103m 2026, t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e1i c\u1ea5p v\u1ed1n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3.<\/p>\n

Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1ecb t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh b\u1edfi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng M\u1ef9 – Trung. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1ea9y thu\u1ebf su\u1ea5t l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 thu h\u1eb9p t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi. Thu\u1ebf quan mang v\u1ec1 h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m t\u1ef7 USD cho M\u1ef9, nh\u01b0ng t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Trong n\u0103m 2025, gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ghi nh\u1eadn l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng AI lan t\u1ecfa t\u1eeb ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n sang h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng th\u1ef1c: chi ti\u00eau cho c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u kim lo\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng s\u1ed1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1edd k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng AI. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 18% trong n\u0103m 2025, \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda tr\u00ean 6.900 \u0111i\u1ec3m; trong khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Dow Jones v\u01b0\u1ee3t 48.700 \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00ean \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh do c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Trung Qu\u1ed1c duy tr\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u, song l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u1eabn l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m ngh\u1ebdn l\u1edbn. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ec1n s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o, Bitcoin c\u00f3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 125.000 USD\/BTC, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 80.000-90.000 USD do thanh l\u00fd \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u0103m 2025 l\u00e0 n\u0103m c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o h\u1ed9 v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a, v\u1edbi th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung leo thang th\u00e0nh “chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i 2.0”. Thu\u1ebf quan cao (l\u00ean t\u1edbi 145% v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi gi\u1ea3m) l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng, \u0111\u1ea9y chi ph\u00ed l\u00ean, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng mang l\u1ea1i ngu\u1ed3n thu l\u1edbn cho M\u1ef9. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung, \u0111e d\u1ecda ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Doanh nghi\u1ec7p chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t sang Mexico, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, Indonesia, t\u1ea1o c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ee9 ba nh\u01b0ng t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed. N\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c, \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu l\u00ean v\u00e0 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ch\u1ea1y v\u00e0o t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 v\u00e0ng, b\u1ea1c. V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 b\u1ea1c tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh “h\u1ea7m tr\u00fa \u1ea9n” tr\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng, v\u1edbi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00edch l\u0169y m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd.<\/p>\n

Trong n\u0103m 2026, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec quanh 3,1%, nh\u01b0ng r\u1ee7i ro suy tho\u00e1i v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u1edbn do thu\u1ebf quan k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng l\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c cao m\u1edbi. Kinh t\u1ebf EU ch\u1ecbu s\u1ee9c \u00e9p k\u00e9p t\u1eeb thu\u1ebf quan M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb k\u00edch th\u00edch thu\u1ebf, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng nh\u1edd n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng gia t\u0103ng \u1edf kh\u1eafp c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng phi \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00f3a tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng. V\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t 5.000 USD\/ounce ngay trong n\u0103m 2026. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p AI v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea1ch. Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 (S&P 500) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng th\u00eam n\u1ebfu l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m, nh\u01b0ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao do \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.\u00a0<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 – Trung, nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o cho r\u1eb1ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n, nh\u01b0ng chuy\u1ec3n sang xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u00f3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, v\u1edbi \u01b0u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh t\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng cho l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y, 2025 l\u00e0 n\u0103m chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n chuy\u1ec3n m\u1ea1nh sang c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ef1c. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u1ea7y th\u1eed th\u00e1ch, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng m\u1edf ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n th\u00edch nghi s\u1edbm v\u1edbi k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean ti\u1ec1n r\u1ebb v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

<\/picture><\/a> <\/p>\n

Donald Trump \u2018\u0111\u01b0a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i\u2019: T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai n\u00e0o cho kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi?<\/a>Kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng ngay \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m m\u1edbi sau khi \u00f4ng Donald Trump nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tung lo\u1ea1t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201c\u0111\u01b0a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i\u201d. \u0110\u1ed3ng USD lao d\u1ed1c, ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c, trong khi v\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u0103m 2025 N\u0103m 2025 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 m\u1ea1nh […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":58154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-vang"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58152","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58152"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58152\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}