{"id":57754,"date":"2025-12-25T10:40:30","date_gmt":"2025-12-25T03:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-price-trading-near-fair-value-says-on-chain-model\/"},"modified":"2025-12-25T10:40:30","modified_gmt":"2025-12-25T03:40:30","slug":"bitcoin-price-trading-near-fair-value-says-on-chain-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/bitcoin-price-trading-near-fair-value-says-on-chain-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price Trading Near \u2018Fair Value,\u2019 Says On-Chain Model"},"content":{"rendered":"
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An on-chain pricing model for Bitcoin suggests that the cryptocurrency is currently neither overvalued nor undervalued, trading right around its \u201cfair value.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Is Trading Near Its On-Chain Fair Value<\/h2>\n

In a new post<\/a> on X, cycle analyst Root has shared an update on how Bitcoin is looking from the perspective of the On-chain Value Map. This BTC valuation model was created by Root using three on-chain metrics: Realized Cap, Liquid Supply, and Coin Days Destroyed.<\/p>\n

First, the \u201cRealized Cap<\/a>\u201d is a capitalization model that calculates the cryptocurrency\u2019s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In simple terms, what this indicator reflects is the amount of capital that the investors as a whole used to purchase the BTC supply.<\/p>\n

The second metric, the \u201cLiquid Supply,\u201d tracks the part of the BTC supply that\u2019s held by investors who often move their coins. Basically, this is the supply that\u2019s likely to return back into circulation, rather than being \u201cHODL\u2019d\u201d<\/p>\n

Finally, the \u201cCoin Days Destroyed<\/a>\u201d (CDD) measures the number of coin days being reset across the network. A \u201ccoin day\u201d is a quantity that 1 BTC accumulates after 1 day of dormancy. When a token carrying some number of coin days is transacted, its coin days counter resets back to zero, and the coin days that it was holding are said to be \u201cdestroyed.\u201d<\/p>\n

The CDD is useful for spotting periods where long-term holders are participating in distribution. These diamond hands hold for long spans, so they naturally accumulate a large amount of coin days, which, when destroyed, produce a spike in the CDD.<\/p>\n

Now, here is the chart for the On-chain Value Map shared by Root, which combines the data of all these Bitcoin indicators to define a few different valuation levels:<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The price of the coin has been near the fair value line in recent days | Source: @therationalroot on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin spiked above the \u201covervalued\u201d level as it set its all-time high (ATH)<\/a> back in October. Since then, the cryptocurrency has notably declined, with its price returning to the level corresponding to \u201cfair value\u201d on the model.<\/p>\n

Thus, it would appear that, at least from the perspective of the On-chain Value Map, the asset is currently neither undervalued nor overvalued, but pretty much neutral. Given this trend, it remains to be seen which direction the coin will head from here.<\/p>\n

BTC Price<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin has been in a phase of consolidation since its low in November, but its price hasn\u2019t diverged much from the On-chain Value Map\u2019s fair value during this period. Currently, it\u2019s trading around $87,600.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Featured image from Dall-E, BitcoinStrategyPlatform.com, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An on-chain pricing model for Bitcoin suggests that the cryptocurrency is currently neither overvalued nor undervalued, trading right around its […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":57756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}