{"id":46553,"date":"2025-09-03T19:55:37","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T12:55:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/what-will-bitcoin-price-do-amid-a-collapse-of-global-g7-bond-markets\/"},"modified":"2025-09-03T19:55:37","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T12:55:37","slug":"what-will-bitcoin-price-do-amid-a-collapse-of-global-g7-bond-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/what-will-bitcoin-price-do-amid-a-collapse-of-global-g7-bond-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"What will Bitcoin price do amid a \u2018collapse of global G7 bond markets\u2019?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-v-43e640e6>\n<p><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin thrives when yields rise on debt and inflation fears, but struggles when central banks tighten aggressively.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Today\u2019s bond market stress looks inflation- and debt-driven, suggesting BTC could follow gold\u2019s record run with higher-beta gains.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Long-term government bond yields are ripping across the US, Europe, Japan and the UK, even as central banks slash policy rates. <\/p>\n<p>The 30-year US Treasury is back near 5%, France\u2019s long bond trades above 4% for the first time since 2011, and UK gilts are testing 27-year highs. Japan\u2019s 30-year yield has reached record levels, prompting analysts to <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1962905103469556042\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1962905103469556042\">call<\/a> it the \u201ccollapse of global G7 bond markets.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990eee-b9de-7e93-adbc-3dbe38f50d13\" title><figcaption><em>Source: The Kobeissi Letter<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>But what happens to Bitcoin amid this concerning macroeconomic outlook? Let\u2019s examine.<\/p>\n<h2>How Bitcoin reacted during past yield spikes<\/h2>\n<p>History shows that Bitcoin\u2019s reaction to rising government bond yields depends on <em>why<\/em> yields are climbing. Sometimes it rallies like \u201cdigital gold,\u201d other times it struggles like a risk asset.<\/p>\n<p>Take the 2013 taper tantrum. <\/p>\n<p>When the Federal Reserve hinted it would slow its money-printing program, the US 10-year yield shot toward 3%. Investors grew anxious about inflation and debt, a sentiment that aligned with Bitcoin\u2019s price explosion from under $100 to over $1,000.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990efa-514c-7a16-b96f-4a722b045c5a\" title><figcaption><em>US 10-year Treasury yield vs BTC\/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A similar story played out in early 2021. <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/soaring-treasury-yields-are-worrying-economists-but-what-does-this-mean-for-bitcoin\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/soaring-treasury-yields-are-worrying-economists-but-what-does-this-mean-for-bitcoin\">Yields climbed<\/a> as markets priced in higher inflation during the post-COVID recovery. Bitcoin moved in step with gold, surging to around $65,000 by April.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990efd-359b-7dec-82e2-9302692b52fc\" title><figcaption><em>US 10-year Treasury yield vs BTC\/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>However, in 2018, the outcome was the opposite. <\/p>\n<p>Yields rose above 3% not because of inflation or debt fears, but because the Fed was hiking aggressively. Real returns on bonds looked attractive, and Bitcoin plunged by about 85% during the same period.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990efe-ab49-73a2-bd7a-6c837b3204f2\" title><figcaption><em>US 10-year Treasury yield vs BTC\/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It shows that Bitcoin behaves like a hedging asset with more upside when <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/all-roads-lead-to-inflation-fed-cut-or-not-bitcoin-may-stand-to-gain\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/all-roads-lead-to-inflation-fed-cut-or-not-bitcoin-may-stand-to-gain\">yields rise due to inflation<\/a>, deficits or excess debt supply. Bitcoin usually struggles when yields rise because <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/explained\/impact-of-fed-interest-rates-on-crypto-holders\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/explained\/impact-of-fed-interest-rates-on-crypto-holders\">central banks are tightening into growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Are rising bond yields bullish for Bitcoin this time?<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin has risen by 4.2% in the past three days, moving in lockstep with a surge in long-term Treasury debt in the US and other G7 nations. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990f1d-c040-7ba3-83d5-cee92aec76c6\" title><figcaption><em>BTC price vs holder retention rate. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>At the same time, its holder retention rate is climbing, showing that more traders are choosing to hold onto BTC as a hedge instead of selling. <\/p>\n<p>The backdrop is hard to ignore. US government debt jumped from $36.2 trillion in July to $37.3 trillion by September, up by over $1 trillion in just two months. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990f0a-9904-7c2d-9590-0c21a4332a1e\" title><figcaption><em>US national debt as of Sept. 3, 2025. Source: USDebtClock.org<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Across the Atlantic, Europe and the UK are facing similar borrowing waves. <\/p>\n<p>The result has been record-sized bond auctions that only clear at higher yields. This is a sign that demand for government bonds is weakening. <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-s-hold-of-dollar109k-shaky-as-whales-move-into-eth\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-s-hold-of-dollar109k-shaky-as-whales-move-into-eth\">UK\u2019s 30-year bond yield<\/a>, for instance, reached its highest level since 1998 on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990f0d-8b29-7501-af55-31729b09c0b9\" title><figcaption><em>UK 30-year Treasury yield monthly chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Gold has already confirmed the shift in investor behavior, away from trusting government bonds and toward hard assets. <\/p>\n<p>The metal\u2019s surge to <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-bulls-charge-at-112k-gold-hits-fresh-all-time-highs\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-bulls-charge-at-112k-gold-hits-fresh-all-time-highs\">record highs above $3,500<\/a> this week shows that markets are actively hedging against runaway debt and inflation. <\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" alt src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2025-09\/01990f12-337b-7777-a543-a6fed02bbd8a\" title><figcaption><em>XAU\/USD monthly price chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Historically, <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/how-high-can-bitcoin-price-go-gold-hits-3-5k-record-high\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/how-high-can-bitcoin-price-go-gold-hits-3-5k-record-high\">Bitcoin benefits from such capital rotations<\/a> a little later than gold. But once it does, it moves faster and further than the precious metal, acting as the higher-beta refuge from monetary and fiscal excess.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/winklevoss-nakamoto-bitcoin-treasury-euro-funding-euronext-reverse-listing\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/winklevoss-nakamoto-bitcoin-treasury-euro-funding-euronext-reverse-listing\"><em><strong>Winklevoss, Nakamoto-backed Treasury launches with 1,000 BTC<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe central banks are losing control of the long end of the curve,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/1MarkMoss\/status\/1962925544250487073\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/1MarkMoss\/status\/1962925544250487073\">noted<\/a> Mark Moss, chief of Bitcoin Strategist at UK-based DeFi firm Satsuma Technology, adding: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cLooks like YCC (yield curve control) coming to a bond market near you soon. Going long Bitcoin is such an obvious move.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Many analysts see <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/us-retirement-plans-bitcoin-rally-200k-finance-redefined\" rel target=\"_self\" title=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/us-retirement-plans-bitcoin-rally-200k-finance-redefined\">Bitcoin reaching a record high of $150,000-200,000<\/a> by 2026.<\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\" type>This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\" label=\"Subscription Form: Markets Outlook\"><\/template><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways: Bitcoin thrives when yields rise on debt and inflation fears, but struggles when central banks tighten aggressively. Today\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46554,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46553\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}