The US Dollar (USD) is trading narrowly mixed amid subdued FX turnover, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
USD narrowly mixed versus majors
“Markets have one eye tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the other on developments in the Middle East. Reports that Iran was keen to seek talks with Israel lifted risk appetite briefly yesterday but Israel is showing little interest in negotiations. President Trump left the G7 meeting early to return to Washington, citing the situation in the Middle East. Either he didn’t like the food or developments in the Israel/Iran situation are a worry. Global stocks (ex-Japan) are softer and among the major bond markets, only Treasurys are firmer.”
“Crude and gold have firmed somewhat. Markets are defensively positioned but that is not reflected in FX where the USD is essentially flat and core high beta FX are steady to slightly firmer while the NOK and CHF lead gains. The MXN and KRW are underperforming. If there’s little coherence to the FX moves, the lack of a clear ‘haven’ bid for the USD amid the uncertainty rather underscores the bearish sentiment surrounding it at present.”
“This morning’s run of US data is not expected to impress. Headline Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.6% in May as tariff policy weighs on activity (core data is expected to be a little firmer) while forecasts anticipate flat Industrial Production and Business Inventories. The NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast to improve a little in June but rising housing inventories may be a developing sign of weakness in that area.”
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