The NZD/USD pair holds positive ground near 0.6050 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Increased US policy volatility continues to drag the Greenback lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Traders will take more cues from China’s January RatingDog Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, which is due later on Wednesday.
Data released by Statistics New Zealand showed on Wednesday that New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate rose to 5.4% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, up from 5.3% in Q3. The figure came in above the market consensus of 5.3% and reached levels last seen in the September 2015 quarter.
The higher-than-expected jobless rate could weigh on the Kiwi, as it indicates economic weakness and provides the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) more room to hold or lower interest rates.
US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown that began on Saturday, per the BBC. The deal passed the US House of Representatives in a 217-214 vote earlier on Tuesday. The package cleared the Senate last Friday.
However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated on Monday that a partial government shutdown would delay the release of the highly anticipated employment report for January, which had been due for release this Friday. Political and fiscal uncertainty in the US could undermine the USD and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
