The NZD/USD pair trades on a positive note around 0.5825 during the early Asian session on Monday. The fears of a prolonged US government shutdown continue to drag the US Dollar (USD) lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Traders await the release of FOMC Minutes later on Wednesday for fresh impetus.
The US government shutdown entered its fifth day as US Senators failed to pass spending proposals to reopen the federal government. Later on Sunday, US President Donald Trump said that his administration would begin laying off federal workers. “It’s taking place right now,” Trump said.
“If the shutdown lasts for a long time, and I mean by several weeks, yes, then, of course, people will begin to question governability in the U.S., said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist, at Macquarie in New York.
The key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate data, originally scheduled for release on Friday, have been postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Concerns over governability in the US might weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the pair in the near term.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) on Wednesday from its current level of 3.0%. Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) cut and see about a 30% odds of a 50 bps reduction. Economists widely interpret the RBNZ’s stance as a “dovish pivot,” expecting further rate cuts in the near future. This, in turn, could undermine the Kiwi against the USD.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
