The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered its fifth day despite world calls for negotiation and de-escalation. The Israeli military said on Tuesday that they identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israel. According to the BBC, at least 224 people in Iran killed since hostilities started. In Israel, 24 people have been killed.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, the Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading 0.11% higher on the day to trade at $3,388.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD treads water above 1.1550, receives support from ECB-Fed policy divergence
EUR/USD holds ground for the second successive session, trading around 1.1560 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair maintains its position near 1.1631, the highest since October 2021, reached on June 12. The Euro receives support from improved risk sentiment amid decreasing concerns of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.
USD/JPY stays below 145.00 after BoJ maintains status quo
USD/JPY recovers from session lows but remains below 145.00 after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left the policy rate unchanged at 0.5%. In the post meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that the timing of the rate hike will depend on the likelihood of achieving the price outlook.
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