The IEA presented its medium-term outlook this week. As in the previous year, it believes that oil demand will peak at the end of the decade, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
US demand is expected to fall less sharply than last year
“Firstly, the advance of electromobility. In 2030, this is expected to replace the daily demand of 5.4 million barrels of oil. Secondly, the decreasing use of oil in power generation. In Saudi Arabia in particular, the increased use of gas and renewable energies is expected to reduce demand. However, demand is still being driven by increased use in the petrochemical industry.”
“Although the IEA points out that global demand growth will be similar to last year, there will be regional shifts: it expects only a slight increase in demand in China, while US demand is expected to fall less sharply than last year thanks to lower prices and a slower advance in electromobility. The most important growth driver, is India: However, with a daily demand of 5.5 million barrels, the world’s third-largest consumer country consumes significantly less than the second-largest consumer, China, with around 16.6 million barrels per day.”
“Provided there is no major turmoil, the market should be well supplied for the time being. According to the IEA, capacities will grow twice as fast as demand until 2030, primarily thanks to the United States and Saudi Arabia. In line with demand growth, capacities are also likely to expand, particularly in the near future, while levelling off towards the end of the decade.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
