The GBP/USD pair gains traction to around 1.3400 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland. The US markets are closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday.
Reuters reported on Saturday that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom (UK) until the US is allowed to buy Greenland.
European Union (EU) ambassadors reached a broad agreement on Sunday to intensify efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing levies on European allies, while France proposes to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures. The Greenback faces some selling pressure following this headline as traders assess the longer-term implications of Trump’s latest move on the currency’s standing.
“While you would argue that the tariffs threaten Europe, in fact, it’s actually the dollar that is bearing the brunt of it, because I think markets are pricing in increased political risk premia on the U.S. dollar,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ.
Traders will closely monitor the release of the UK employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released later this week. These reports could offer some hints about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. In case of the weaker-than-expected outcomes, these could drag the Cable lower against the USD in the near term.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
