My previous GBP/USD signal on 5th June was not triggered.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3415 or $1.3395.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3467, $1.3498, or $1.3518.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous GBP/USD forecast almost two weeks ago that aa long trade following two consecutive hourly closes above $1.3592 was likely to be the best opportunity of the day.
This was a good call insofar as it was enough to keep out of what would have been an unprofitable long trade as the price rejected the $1.3600 area.
The technical picture over recent days has been quite bearish, with the British Pound notably weak, even relative to the Euro with which it is usually highly correlated.
The price has been falling and printing clear stairstep resistance levels on its way down.
However, some hours ago the price seemed to complete a bullish double bottom at $1.3415.
Yet as the price reaches the first resistance level after that, at $1.3467, it has rejected the level and looks like it starting another downwards leg.
I think this level is very likely to be today’s pivotal point, but I am not certain a short trade from this area will run a long way. A scalp there might be the best thing this currency pair could offer technical traders.
There is a highly important US Federal Reserve meeting later today, but it is not likely to give any surprises so might have almost no effect on prices.
Earlier today, UK CPI (inflation) data was released which was a fraction higher than expected, but it had no effect of strengthening the Pound in any notable way.
There is nothing further of high importance due today regarding the GBP. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time, followed by the Federal Reserve announcements at 7pm and their press conference half an hour afterwards.
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