EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1440 – 1.1370 – 1.1300.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1540 – 1.1620 – 1.1700.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1370 with a target of 1.1560 and a stop-loss at 1.1290.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1700.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Selling pressure on the EUR/USD increased following the Federal Reserve’s updated policy announcement. The Euro/Dollar price is currently stabilizing around the 1.1475 support level at the time of writing, relinquishing this week’s earlier rebound gains that extended to the 1.1615 resistance level, near the pair’s highest point in over three years. According to reliable trading platforms, the US Dollar saw increased gains against other major currencies after the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for its fourth consecutive meeting in June 2025. This decision aligns with expectations as policymakers take a cautious stance to assess the full economic impact of President Trump’s policies, particularly those related to tariffs, immigration, and taxes.
Furthermore, officials indicated that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has diminished but remains high. Despite this, the Federal Reserve continues to anticipate two US interest rate cuts later this year, though it expects only quarter-percentage-point cuts in both 2026 and 2027.
Will the Euro Price Rise Against the Dollar in the Coming Months?
The US dollar hedging process, which has been ongoing for several months, could push the EUR/USD pair higher. Increased hedge inflows from European pension funds are emerging as a driving force behind the euro’s rise, with analysts pointing to structural shifts in foreign exchange risk management as a key factor likely to push the EUR/USD pair to new record highs. Recent data from the Dutch National Bank shows that Dutch pension funds, the largest in the European Union, significantly shifted their foreign exchange hedging positions between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, moving from net short positions of €10.5 billion to net long positions of €7.5 billion. During that period, the EUR/USD pair rose by 3.8%.
Trading Tips:
We still advise selling the Euro against the US Dollar from every upward level, but without taking risks, no matter how strong the trading opportunities, and distributing the trading amount across several entry levels.
Since then, the currency pair has gained another 6.8%, suggesting that hedging activity likely continued into Q2 amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. As is well known, pension funds have long been primarily unhedged against USD-denominated investments, as the dollar tended to appreciate during “risk-off” periods when equities fell. However, the recent breakdown in the dollar’s correlation with local markets (i.e., its decline alongside falling equities) means investors now need to hedge against US dollar weakness.
Meanwhile, this involves selling the US dollar using various forex market products, which ultimately weakens the dollar. Forex market experts add that the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain stable and trend towards new year-to-date record highs above 1.16, indicating strong structural support from repositioning flows.
Today’s Technical Outlook for EUR/USD:
Despite the selling pressure on EUR/USD, the overall outlook remains bullish so far. According to the daily timeframe chart, the uptrend will not be broken unless bears succeed in pushing the currency pair towards the 1.1365 and 1.1270 support levels, respectively. After recent trading losses, both the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator are in a neutral position. On the upside, the 1.1550 resistance remains crucial for confirming the bulls’ strong control over the EUR/USD trend.
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