The Euro (EUR) is soft, down a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Thursday’s NA session and the 8:15am ET ECB policy decision (followed by the 8:45am ET press conference), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
EUR is trading soft on the day
“The preliminary PMI’s offered little in terms of the broader narrative, as the manufacturing PMI met expectations with a 49.8 print while services offered a marginal surprise at 51.2. The ECB is widely expected to deliver a hold and strike a neutral tone in terms of the rate outlook.”
“On trade, Wednesday’s news of a looming US/EU agreement (imposing 15% tariffs on US imports from the EU) helped push the EUR to a fresh local high however the common currency has yet to fully retrace its pullback from the July 1 high in the mid/lower-1.18s. The multi-month trend is bullish with a sequence of higher lows and higher highs since February.”
“The RSI is around 60, allowing momentum to confirm the trend. We continue to highlight the importance of trend support at the 50 day MA (1.1546) and see limited resistance between the current levels and the July 1 high in the mid/lower-1.18s. We look to a near-term range bound between support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800.”
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