Latest readings from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ending August 12 saw investors keeping a close watch on the Federal Reserve, as there were still questions about the Fed’s independence, and speculation about further rate cuts in September and December kept growing. In addition, some progress in the US-China trade discussions helped calm things down a little.
Non-commercial traders trimmed down even further on their net long positions in the Japanese Yen (JPY), bringing their holdings down to roughly 74.2K contracts, which is the lowest level in many months. Hedge funds and other big traders also cut down on their net shorts, with bearish bets fell to levels last seen in mid-February, when there were around 74K contracts. Open interest, on the other hand, rose to around 351.2K contracts, the highest level in nine weeks. In this context, USD/JPY remained choppy, hitting multi-day highs in the mid-148.00s for a short time before resuming its downtrend.
Speculative net shorts on the US Dollar (USD) fell a little from recent highs, going down to around 6.2K contracts. But even if the market pulled down, negative posture remained near to multi-year highs. Furthermore, open interest hit a two-week high of over 30.4K contracts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continued its gradual decline, falling from monthly highs over the psychological 100.00 threshold to trade closer to the 98.00 neighbourhood.
Speculators further increased their bearish exposure on the British Pound (GBP), taking net shorts to nearly 39.1K contracts for the first time since April 2024, while open interest climbed just over 216K, the highest level since early June. GBP/USD maintained its upside impulse in place and approached the 1.3500 hurdle, helped by the hawkish cut by the BoE.
Despite net longs in the Euro (EUR) retreating to six-week lows near 115.5K contracts, speculators kept their bullish view near recent highs, while commercial traders increased their net short holdings to two-week tops just over 167K contracts. Open interest reversed two weekly drops in a row and went up to nearly 825K contracts. EUR/USD followed the bearish dynamic in the US Dollar, extending its gradual bounce to the proximity of the 1.1700 region.
Speculative net longs in crude oil retreated to more-than-a-decade lows around 116.8K contracts, amid a five-week trough in open interest to around 2.010M contracts. Prices of WTI remained on the back foot, retreating uninterruptedly to the $63.00 region per barrel after hitting two-month highs past the $70.00 mark in late July.
Non-commercial net longs in Gold receded to two-week troughs around 229.5K contracts amid a small downtick in open interest to around 446.2K contracts. Prices of the yellow metal maintained their erratic performance, briefly revisiting the $3,400 mark per troy ounce before coming under renewed downside pressure.
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