The latest Bank of England (BoE) Decision Maker Panel (DMP) quarterly survey released on Thursday showed that “one-year ahead expected CPI inflation by the UK firms edged slightly higher to 3.5% in the quarter to September.”
Key takeaways
Three-month average expectations show an expected rise of 3.4%, the most since February 2024.
Expectations for three-years ahead, that is seen unchanged at 2.9% in the three months to September.
Besides that, UK firms also reported that their realised annual own-price growth rose slightly to 3.8%, up 0.1% from August.
As for the firms’ own-price inflation for the year ahead, that is seen at 3.7% – unchanged since July.
Firms’ year-ahead expectations for employment 0.0% in 3 months to September.
The survey is one of the most closely watched by members of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Market reaction
At the press time, GBP/USD is trading 0.18% higher on the day at around 1.3500.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
