Bitcoin’s nearly three-month rally may be losing steam as buying pressure weakens and more traders start taking profits, crypto analysts say.
“For the first time in that uptrend, momentum has begun to fade,” Bitfinex analysts said in a markets report on Monday.
Since Bitcoin (BTC) fell to its year-to-date low of $73,273 on April 9, it has surged almost 41% to $107,380 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.
“Vertical acceleration” sidelined for now
However, the analysts warned that order flow data and onchain metrics signal that Bitcoin may be entering a period of consolidation or reaching a local top “rather than continued vertical acceleration.”
“Spot volume has cooled, taker buy pressure has weakened, and profit-taking has intensified — especially among short-term holders who rode the move from sub-$80,000 levels,” they added.
Analysts say ETFs must persist amid strong inflow streak
The analysts say Bitcoin’s next move will depend on macro factors and ongoing institutional demand, especially from ETF inflows.
US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted inflows for 14 consecutive trading days straight since June 9, amounting to $4.63 billion net inflows as of June 27, according to Farside data.
Economist Timothy Peterson described last week’s $2.2 billion inflows as “massive” and expects the streak to continue this week. “70% chance next week will be positive too, which generally correlates to upward price pressure,” Peterson said.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin traders will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s July 30 interest rate decision, as lower rates are typically bullish for the crypto. The market currently estimates a 19% chance that the Fed will lower rates at that meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Despite short-term uncertainty, analysts say the broader market structure remains strong, with higher time frame support levels still holding. “The current data points to a transition phase,” they said.
Bitcoin’s uptrend will continue when long-term holders stop selling
Some analysts remain bullish. Economist Donald Dean said, “Bitcoin is getting ready to move higher with tight consolidation at the volume shelf.”
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Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards recently argued that long-term holder selling pressure has stunted the growth of Bitcoin’s price despite recent moves from institutions and corporations to buy the asset.
“People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck at $100K so long, despite the institutional FOMO,” adding that this is mainly due to Bitcoin OGs — long-term holders — who have been “dumping on Wall Street” and “unloading their positions” since the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in January 2024.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
