AUD/USD edges lower after posting more than 1.25% gains in the previous session, trading near 0.7060 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair could regain traction as the Australian Dollar (AUD) may find support as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected 25-basis-point interest rate hike later in the day, driven by rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.
The RBA is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.10% from 3.85%, potentially becoming the first G10 central bank to resume tightening. Market participants will closely watch RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has warned that oil price shocks tied to the Iran conflict pose upside risks to inflation.
A Reuters poll indicates economists expect the RBA to lift rates to 4.10% in March, with the possibility of another increase to 4.35% later this year. Westpac’s shift toward forecasting back-to-back rate hikes reinforces the view that the March meeting is “live,” which could lend support to Australian bond yields and the Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) has struggled amid easing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. However, its downside may be limited as expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year fade due to the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Concerns that surging crude oil prices could drive inflation higher have dampened expectations for near-term monetary easing.
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
