AUD/USD advances after registering around 1.25% losses in the previous session, trading around 0.6530 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair lost ground due to renewed trade tensions between Australia’s close trading partner, China, and the United States (US). China’s Trade Balance data will be eyed later in the day.
US President Trump stated on Friday that there was no reason to meet with China’s President Xi Jinping during the upcoming summit in South Korea in two weeks. Trump also announced plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. In response, China warned that it will retaliate if Trump fails to back down on his threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, raising fears of how the trade war will impact the US economy.
Reuters, citing a report from The Age on Sunday, said a leaked brief from Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s department revealed that government officials have begun discussions with miners about contributing to a A$1.2 billion ($776.28 million) “critical minerals strategic reserve.” Australia is considering setting minimum prices for critical minerals and providing funding for new rare earth projects under a proposed resources agreement with the United States.
The AUD/USD pair may draw support from the subdued US Dollar (USD), driven by the ongoing US government shutdown. The first US Federal paychecks for October were expected on Friday but were delayed due to the government shutdown. The disruption is expected to continue at least until Tuesday, as the United States observes the Columbus Day holiday on Monday, with no resolution to the shutdown yet in sight.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
