Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers some lost ground to around $4,470 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal edges higher following a period of extreme volatility, with the price falling to a four-month low near $4,100, its worst weekly performance since 1983.
Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump signaled that Iran had offered a “present” as a show of good faith in negotiations he has claimed are ongoing to end a 25-day conflict that’s upended global markets, even while he deploys more troops to the Middle East.
This headline came as Mohsen Rezaei, the senior military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Tuesday that the war will continue until Iran receives full compensation for damage it has sustained. Uncertainty and persistent Middle East tensions could boost the yellow metal, a traditional safe-haven asset in the near term.
On the other hand, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East push energy prices higher and reduce expectations of US interest rate cuts. This, in turn, could weigh on the non-yielding Gold in the near term. “The prospect of higher interest rates as a result of the war could boost government bonds among investors, at the expense of non-yielding precious metals,” market strategists told CNBC.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
