USD/CAD struggles after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.3660 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could face challenges amid lower Oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price declines after three days of gains, trading around $77.60 at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices retreated after the US President Donald Trump administration signaled it is weighing several options to address the recent price surge caused by supply disruptions linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Bloomberg reported on Friday that US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the administration is reviewing multiple measures before announcing plans to provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for Oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against its major peers, with Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continuing to consider the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation remains above target, despite calls from some policymakers who argue that the time to begin rate cuts has arrived.
Market participants are also awaiting Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, where consensus expectations are around 59K for February, following January’s above-trend reading of 130K. Additionally, Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.3% month-over-month in January, after a flat reading in the previous month.
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
