After hitting its $124,000 all-time high back in July, the Bitcoin price has now moved back into a phase of struggling and consolidation. While many have called this out as only a temporary stop, expecting the Bitcoin price to continue its ascent once the decline is over, crypto analyst EXCAVO has taken a more bearish outlook. According to the analyst, the current market trend actually points to the end of the bull market and the beginning of the next bear market.
Why The Bitcoin Price Will Crash
In the analysis, EXCAVO outlined why they believe that the Bitcoin bear market was actually over. These were given as the classic signs of a top of the market, and there were three in total. The first of these is what the analyst referred to as “Universal Optimism.”
This universal optimism simply points to the fact that everyone seems to be bullish at this point, in addition to seemingly bullish developments. EXCAVO points to the fact that governments are now accepting crypto and creating reserve funds as the reason universal optimism is a sign of the top.
Next is that corporate buying has continued, especially for the likes of Bitcoin. Public companies such as Strategy have accumulated massive reserves of Bitcoin, with Ethereum treasuries not left out. These treasury companies have now bought tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Last but not least, is that positive news around crypto is currently dominating the media. The analyst believes that with so much positive news and investors being reluctant to sell as they wait for higher prices, such as $200,000, $300,000, and $500,000, it is a signal that the Bitcoin price has topped.
The Exit Strategy
Playing into the idea that the Bitcoin price has topped and is headed into another bear market, the crypto analyst explained that they have sold everything. The plan is to wait until September 2026 before buying back in. According to the crypto analyst’s chart, they expect the Bitcoin price to fall below $61,000 at this time.
The analyst also backs this up with the cycle theory, which says there are around 151 weeks of growth followed by 51 weeks of decline. Going by this, the growth phase is already completed, and between September 13 and October 6 is the beginning of the reversal zone that begins the bear market decline.
Additionally, the crypto analyst also dismisses the idea of an altcoin season. Due to the large number of cryptocurrencies right now, sitting at over 1 million coins, EXCAVO says it is not possible for all coins to be pushed up at the same time, like it did in 2017. Rather, there will be selective pumps on altcoins that players are interested in.
“I have not become a bear forever. I believe Bitcoin will hit $300,000. But not in the coming months,” the analyst stated. “It will be worth that in 2.5 years, after a healthy 50-60% correction from the peak.”
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
