Key takeaways:
Short-term Bitcoin holders have sold over 20,000 BTC at a loss since Sunday.
Technicals suggest pushing Bitcoin’s price below $100,000 could be a tough task for the bears.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has pulled back below $116,000, as uncertainty ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech led investors and traders to reevaluate risks and stay cautious.
Bitcoin “weak hands” back to realizing losses
Bitcoin has retraced 7.6% from its new all-time high of $124,500 set last week. Following this price action, onchain data from CryptoQuant showed that over 20,000 BTC held by short-term holders (STHs) — investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days — have moved to exchanges at a loss over the last three days.
More than 1,670 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a loss on Sunday, which surged to 23,520 BTC by Tuesday, coinciding with a 3.5% drop in BTC’s price to $114,400 from $118,600, per Glassnode data.
Related: Bitcoin ‘liquidity zones swept’ but uptick in open interest hints at BTC recovery
The chart below shows that most Bitcoin sent to exchanges at a loss are from STHs, while LTHs — both in profit and loss — comprise just 10% of the total volume to exchanges.
This activity underscores a familiar behavioral pattern where short-term speculators panic-sell during market dips, frequently realizing losses.
The last time Bitcoin STHs moved into sustained loss realization was in January, “a period that marked the deepest correction of this cycle,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi.
“For the first time since that January drawdown, STH-SOPR multiples have slipped back below 1, indicating that short-term investors are once again realizing losses,” the analyst said in an Aug. 18 Quicktake note.
Historically, this has carried two implications: A weakening momentum where extended loss realization often precedes deeper corrective phases, or a healthy reset where “brief dips below 1 can flush out weak hands, clearing the path for more sustainable rallies,” Kripto Mevsimi said, adding:
“This loss-selling event becomes a critical barometer of market health. If absorbed quickly, it could mirror past resets that fueled strong rebounds. If not, it risks signaling a momentum breakdown.”
Bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 “tough fight for bears”
BTC’s latest drop below $115,000 has several traders and analysts calling for deeper price corrections to sub-$100,000 levels.
For this to happen, “$BTC would need to break the $100K–$110K wall” built for over 100 days since breaking above the $100,000 mark on May 8, trading firm Swissblock said in an X post on Monday, adding:
“Not indestructible, but a tough fight for bears.”
For Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC, a close below Monday’s low at $114,700 could see the price drop toward the $110,000-$112,000 demand zone.
Meanwhile, prediction market platform Polymarket expects more price weakness for the rest of the week. The most likely outcome for BTC is now $114,000 at 73%, while a close below $112,000 is at 39% probability, and 18% and 16% odds for a drop toward $110,000 and $108,000, respectively.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin could continue consolidating in the current range as many BTC investors may continue taking profit below all-time highs.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
