The US Dollar (USD) has resumed its weekly downside, as investors have started to price in further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while mixed US data releases also kept the currency on the defensive.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed its second consecutive week in the red, slipping back to the sub-98.00 region amid steady speculation of extra rate reductions. The NAHB Housing Market Index will be the only data release on August 18. Building Permits, Housing Starts, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories are due on August 19. The usual weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories and the FOMC Minutes are all expected on August 20. The Jackson Hole Symposium kicks in on August 21, alongside the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Existing Home Sales, and the CB Leading Index. The Jackson Hole Symposium will continue on August 22.
EUR/USD added to its previous weekly advance, reclaiming the 1.1700 region on the back of the intense correction in the Greenback. The Balance of Trade results in the euro area are due on August 18, while the Current Account results for the bloc are expected on August 19. The final Inflation Rate in the EMU will be released on August 20 along with Producer Prices in Germany. The advanced HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due in Germany and the Euroland on August 21, followed by EMU’s Construction Output and the flash Consumer Confidence gauge in the bloc. The final Q2 GDP Growth Rate in Germany will wrap up the docket alongside the ECB’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and Negotiated Wage Growth.
The continuation of the bearish tone in the US Dollar and the hawkish cut by the BoE kept the constructive tone around GBP/USD well in place this week. The UK Inflation Rate is due on August 20, while Public Sector Net Borrowing, preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs and CBI Industrial Trends Orders will all be published on August 21. Finally, Retail Sales, and theGfK Consumer Confidence gauge will come on August 22.
USD/JPY extended its erratic performance for yet another week, hovering around the 147.00-148.00 region and closely following developments on the trade front as well as speculation over the Fed’s rate path. The Tertiary Industry Index will kickstart the domestic calendar on August 18. Balance of Trade results are due on August 20, seconded by Machinery Orders. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be released on August 21 alongside flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs. On August 22, the Inflation Rate will be the salient data release.
AUD/USD could not capitalise on the renewed weakness around the US Dollar, retreating modestly on a weekly basis around the 0.6500 neighbourhood. Consumer Inflation Expectations are expected on August 18, followed by the Westpac Consumer Confidence print on August 19. The advanced S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on August 21.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
The RBA’s Connolly will speak on August 19, followed by the Fed’s Bowman.
The RBA’s Jones and McPhee speak on August 20, ahead of the Fed’s Waller and Bostic.
The Fed’s Bostic speaks on August 21.
The Fed’s Powell will speak on August 22.
Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies
The central banks’ calendar will be concentrated on August 20:
PBoC (act. 3.00%-3.50% vs. 3.00%-3.50% exp.).
BI (act. 5.25% vs. 5.25% exp.)
RBNZ (act. 3.25% vs. 3.00% exp.)
Riksbank (act. 2.00% vs. 2.00% exp.)
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