USD/ZAR Analysis: Liquidity and Risk Appetite Trading Considerations – 16 June 2025

The USD/ZAR saw a spike on early Friday as global Forex markets turned risk adverse, but the currency pair has come off near-term highs and has resumed its lower range as concerns persists.

Traders need to know that South Africa is celebrating a national holiday today, which means financial institutions from the nation will be mostly absent from USD/ZAR action. However the currency pair is trading in a rather illiquid marketplace and is showing a value around 17.83300 depending on bids and asks. If a speculator must trade the USD/ZAR today, it is essential that entry price orders be used so they do not get killed on a fill per their chosen direction as they pursue short-term wagers.

After trading near the 17.65900 vicinity on Wednesday of last week, the USD/ZAR started to get hit by higher volatility. By early Friday morning in the wake of heightened global risk adverse movement in Forex, the USD/ZAR touched the 18.05000 ratios a couple of times before calming and reversing lower. The ability of the USD/ZAR to traverse lower early this morning correlates with the broad Forex markets, but today’s Youth Day holiday in South Africa and potential risk events certainly lurk.

Short-Term Dangers and Near-Term Outlooks

The USD/ZAR until the middle of last week was calmly proving that its bearish trend was capable of a rather solid trend, the escalation of Middle East conflict has thrown doubt into global Forex. The USD did see buying increase via a flight to safety on Friday, but then major currencies began to pick up momentum against the USD again, including the South African Rand. But storm clouds continue to lurk.

The U.S Federal Reserve will release its Federal Funds Rate this coming Wednesday. What was expected to be a more dovish sounding Fed because of relatively tame U.S inflation data will now be put to the test via FOMC members who have proven to be overly cautious the past three months. The potential of higher energy prices may spook the Fed and cause them to refrain from suggesting an interest rate will come in July. However, the late July decision is a distance away, and as last week and this weekend have proven regarding the Middle East situation things can change quickly.

USD/ZAR Dynamics and Wagering

The USD/ZAR will trade largely based on behavioral sentiment from the global Forex market.

The USD is showing some weakness against major currencies this morning, but day traders should be cautious because of potentially combustible dynamics.
Today will be tricky for the USD/ZAR because of a lack of volume in the currency pair, but depending on what the USD does against the EUR and GBP today, traders will be able to get a feel for risk appetite and risk adverse sentiment.
Mid-term outlook still feels like a potentially bearish USD/ZAR is in the cards, but short-term risk events will create volatility today and tomorrow.