Key takeaways:
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DOGE formed a double bottom after breaking a long-term downtrend, hinting at a rally to new year-to-date highs.
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DOGE’s futures open interest, spot volumes, and holders’ profit show rising demand and reduced sell pressure.
Dogecoin (DOGE) shows strong signs of rallying higher as technical indicators and onchain metrics align to support bullish continuation. Currently trading above $0.21, DOGE is forming a textbook double bottom pattern on the daily chart, a historically reliable reversal formation. This bullish structure is developing after DOGE decisively broke out of a long-standing descending channel, further confirming a shift in momentum.
Following the breakout, the memecoin has entered a consolidation phase between $0.19 and $0.21, which could be viewed as a healthy retest and hold after a breakout. An immediate break above $0.21 would likely pave the way to $0.25, a key level that completes the double bottom pattern. This would open a path toward $0.48, a level last seen in December 2024.
Notably, DOGE’s larger structure on the weekly chart adds further weight to its bullish case. Crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade noted that the crypto asset trades within an ascending broadening wedge, a technical formation known for its parabolic breakout potential. The price action suggests that DOGE is gearing up to test and potentially breach this upper boundary.
Based on historical precedents and structural analysis, such a move could lay the foundation for a 300% rally once $0.25 is reclaimed, with the $1 level emerging as a realistic long-term target once DOGE clears the $0.47 resistance.
Related: Crypto spot trading down 22% in Q2 despite Bitcoin rally: Report
Onchain DOGE data supports a bullish bias
From an onchain data perspective, DOGE’s metrics reflect this bullish setup. Open Interest (OI) in DOGE futures markets has seen a massive jump in July, rising from $1.70 billion to $2.85 billion, i.e., a 67% increase, indicating renewed speculative activity.
Despite the rise in OI, funding rates remain neutral, signaling that leveraged longs have not yet overheated the market. In parallel, the spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) continues to rise slowly, revealing net buying pressure in the spot market, a healthy sign of real demand underpinning price action.
Adding further weight is the Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL), which has now entered the Optimism-Anxiety zone. This psychological zone implies that long-term DOGE holders are sitting on moderate profits and shifting sentiment from uncertainty (Hope-Fear) toward cautious confidence.
Historically, every major DOGE breakout, including the 2021 and 2024 breakouts, began once LTH-NUPL moved into this zone. It reflects a market where long-term holders begin to reduce selling pressure and allow short to mid-term capital inflows to drive price action.
Related: Ethereum open interest hits all-time high as trader predicts $30K price top
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
