{"id":80652,"date":"2026-05-19T08:57:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T01:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/australian-dollars-hawkish-trade-is-getting-crowded\/"},"modified":"2026-05-19T10:50:38","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T03:50:38","slug":"giao-dich-theo-xu-huong-dieu-hau-cua-dong-do-la-uc-dang-tro-nen-qua-dong-duc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/giao-dich-theo-xu-huong-dieu-hau-cua-dong-do-la-uc-dang-tro-nen-qua-dong-duc\/","title":{"rendered":"Giao d\u1ecbch theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fac."},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1ea1i m\u1ed1c 0.7120 trong \u0111\u1ea7u phi\u00ean ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 Hai v\u00e0 d\u1ea7n h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c 0.7180 v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa bu\u1ed5i chi\u1ec1u, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng USD c\u00f9ng t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n nh\u1eb9. Nh\u00ecn b\u1ec1 ngo\u00e0i, \u0111\u1ee3t ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 quen thu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a AUD: Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00dac (RBA) mang quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d, gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao v\u00e0 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee7 dai d\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ec7n minh cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u1eefa. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e0y gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00e1 quen thu\u1ed9c, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Phe mua \u0111ang g\u1ed3ng g\u00e1nh to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/h3>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ecb th\u1ebf m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb \u1ee6y ban Giao d\u1ecbch H\u00e0ng h\u00f3a T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai M\u1ef9 (CFTC) cho th\u1ea5y l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf mua r\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi AUD \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 85.000 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng, m\u1ee9c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2013. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ki\u1ec3u thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u00e0o l\u1ec7nh mu\u1ed9n. Giao d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y v\u1eabn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 nh\u1edd b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh v\u0129 m\u00f4 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i, v\u1edbi xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9 – Iran gi\u1eef gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao v\u00e0 RBA bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i duy tr\u00ec l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u thay v\u00ec ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, khi qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u00f9ng chen ch\u00fac trong m\u1ed9t h\u01b0\u1edbng giao d\u1ecbch, ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng nh\u1ecf c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng ch\u1ed1t l\u1eddi m\u1ea1nh. V\u00e0 tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 t\u1edbi ba y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n h\u1ecdp RBA l\u00e0 b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean<\/h3>\n

Bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp c\u1ee7a RBA v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Ba s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng soi x\u00e9t k\u1ef9 l\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u m\u1ec1m m\u1ecfng n\u00e0o trong quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn n\u00e0o r\u1eb1ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 do n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t n\u1ebfu c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, ho\u1eb7c b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u n\u00e0o cho th\u1ea5y RBA c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y tho\u1ea3i m\u00e1i h\u01a1n v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i 4,35% so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 g\u1ea7n 80% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng RBA s\u1ebd t\u0103ng th\u00eam 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00ean 4,60% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t cao, trong khi ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng theo h\u01b0\u1edbng \u00f4n h\u00f2a c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ee7 t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m. Trong chu k\u1ef3 n\u00e0y, RBA ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng, v\u1edbi ba l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u. V\u00e0 c\u00e0ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0y, giao d\u1ecbch theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u00e0ng d\u1ec5 t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng n\u1ebfu ngu\u1ed3n \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt.<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u1ee9 N\u0103m m\u1edbi l\u00e0 b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1<\/h3>\n

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u00e1ng 4 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 N\u0103m s\u1ebd l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t tu\u1ea7n. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 20.000 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 17.900, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,3% v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tham gia lao \u0111\u1ed9ng duy tr\u00ec quanh 66,8%.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 l\u00fd do thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 RBA ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. V\u00ec v\u1eady, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u y\u1ebfu n\u00e0o, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf nh\u00f3m vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m to\u00e0n th\u1eddi gian, \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi v\u1ecb th\u1ebf mua hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 \u1edf m\u1ee9c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1ea1nh, n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 gi\u00fap k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u00e0 \u00e9p gi\u00e1 l\u00ean thay v\u00ec m\u1edf ra m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng m\u1edbi, b\u1edfi ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 8 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng<\/h3>\n

Khu v\u1ef1c 0.7120 hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 \u201cranh gi\u1edbi sinh t\u1eed\u201d. N\u1ebfu ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y, AUD\/USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 0.7080, n\u01a1i h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

\u1ede chi\u1ec1u t\u0103ng, m\u1ed1c 0.7200 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau h\u00fat gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh n\u0103m quanh 0.7280 l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n

Bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp FOMC v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 T\u01b0 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 kh\u00f3 l\u01b0\u1eddng, d\u00f9 c\u00e1c tin t\u1ee9c t\u1eeb ph\u00eda M\u1ef9 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00f4ng qua t\u00e2m l\u00fd r\u1ee7i ro h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, do c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m chung cho tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 trung l\u1eadp th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0ng nghi\u00eang r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m. AUD v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng n\u1ebfu bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n RBA mang m\u00e0u s\u1eafc t\u00edch c\u1ef1c ho\u1eb7c USD suy y\u1ebfu th\u00eam, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111\u00fac c\u1ee7a v\u1ecb th\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn\/r\u1ee7i ro \u0111ang nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1n khi gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng l\u00ean g\u1ea7n 0.7200 \u2014 tr\u1eeb khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u1ee9 N\u0103m \u0111\u1ee7 m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3i t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 AUD\/USD khung 15 ph\u00fat.<\/h4>\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt<\/h4>\n

Tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 15 ph\u00fat, AUD\/USD \u0111ang giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ea1i 0.7170 v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, duy tr\u00ec ph\u00eda tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c m\u1edf c\u1eeda ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 0.7152. Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 cho th\u1ea5y t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c trong khi Stochastic RSI \u0111ang ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 mua, cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng \u0111ang b\u1ecb k\u00e9o c\u0103ng v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn c\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n d\u1ec5 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1ecbp t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng ho\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nh\u1eb9 thay v\u00ec ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

\u1ede chi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m, v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean n\u1eb1m quanh m\u1ee9c m\u1edf c\u1eeda ng\u00e0y 0.7152, n\u01a1i phe mua nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n trong nh\u1eefng l\u1ea7n ki\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean. Ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o AUD\/USD c\u00f2n gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean v\u00f9ng n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 n\u00f4ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c Stochastic RSI \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c mua \u0111u\u1ed5i \u1edf v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i s\u1ebd mang r\u1ee7i ro \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ed3 ng\u00e0y, AUD\/USD \u0111ang giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ea1i 0.7169. C\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n khi gi\u00e1 gi\u1eef ph\u00eda tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng EMA 50 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 0.7111 v\u00e0 EMA 200 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 0.6844, gi\u00fap c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac t\u0103ng d\u00e0i h\u01a1n v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ec9nh tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o Stochastic RSI quanh m\u1ee9c 59 \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t kh\u1ecfi v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 mua, cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng \u0111ang ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

\u1ede chi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m, v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean hi\u1ec7n n\u1eb1m t\u1ea1i EMA 50 ng\u00e0y quanh 0.7111, n\u01a1i phe mua nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 khu v\u1ef1c breakout g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t. N\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u h\u01a1n, EMA 200 ng\u00e0y t\u1ea1i 0.6844 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef v\u1eefng, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec.<\/p>\n

(Ph\u1ea7n ph\u00e2n t\u00edch k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt trong b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 AI.)<\/p>\n

C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p v\u1ec1 \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac<\/h3>\n

M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac (AUD) l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t do Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00dac (RBA) thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp. V\u00ec \u00dac l\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia gi\u00e0u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u2014 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft. S\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u00dac, c\u0169ng l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a \u00dac. T\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u2014 t\u1ee9c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang \u01b0u ti\u00ean t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro (risk-on) hay t\u00ecm n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n an to\u00e0n (risk-off) \u2014 c\u0169ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn AUD, trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u00e2m l\u00fd risk-on th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c cho AUD.<\/p>\n

Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u00dac (RBA) \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn AUD b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u00dac v\u1edbi nhau. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a RBA l\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong kho\u1ea3ng 2-3% b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean ho\u1eb7c xu\u1ed1ng. M\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i cao so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 AUD v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. RBA c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ho\u1eb7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, trong \u0111\u00f3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c v\u1edbi AUD c\u00f2n th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00ec t\u00edch c\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n

Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u00dac n\u00ean s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a AUD. Khi kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y s\u1ebd nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u nhi\u1ec1u nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u, h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 t\u1eeb \u00dac h\u01a1n, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi AUD v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y t\u0103ng l\u00ean. \u0110i\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i x\u1ea3y ra khi kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. V\u00ec v\u1eady, c\u00e1c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd t\u00edch c\u1ef1c ho\u1eb7c ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn AUD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n li\u00ean quan.<\/p>\n

Qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u00dac, mang v\u1ec1 kho\u1ea3ng 118 t\u1ef7 USD m\u1ed7i n\u0103m theo d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u0103m 2021, v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh. V\u00ec v\u1eady, gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a AUD. Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft t\u0103ng th\u00ec AUD c\u0169ng t\u0103ng theo, do nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y t\u0103ng l\u00ean. \u0110i\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m. Gi\u00e1 qu\u1eb7ng s\u1eaft cao h\u01a1n c\u0169ng th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u00dac c\u00f3 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 AUD.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u2014 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u2014 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a AUD. N\u1ebfu \u00dac xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf s\u0103n \u0111\u00f3n, \u0111\u1ed3ng AUD s\u1ebd t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 nh\u1edd nhu c\u1ea7u mua t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n \u00dac c\u1ea7n chi \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u. V\u00ec v\u1eady, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i r\u00f2ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c s\u1ebd h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 AUD, c\u00f2n c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u00e2m s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ed3ng \u0110\u00f4 la \u00dac \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00f9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1ea1i m\u1ed1c 0.7120 trong \u0111\u1ea7u phi\u00ean ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":80653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80652"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80652\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80893,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80652\/revisions\/80893"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}