{"id":78693,"date":"2026-05-08T09:07:43","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T02:07:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-bulls-target-115k-by-december-does-data-back-the-expectation\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T09:07:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T02:07:43","slug":"bitcoin-bulls-target-115k-by-december-does-data-back-the-expectation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/bitcoin-bulls-target-115k-by-december-does-data-back-the-expectation\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin bulls target $115K by December: Does data back the expectation?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class value=\"1\">Half of the $6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest is tied to long-shot strategies used for hedging and neutral price strategies.<\/li>\n<li class value=\"2\">The 9% put (sell) options premium hints that professional traders are worried about a potential Bitcoin price drop.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have high hopes for the year-end options expiry on Dec. 25, which features $6 billion at stake. The 33% price gain since the $60,130 yearly low on Feb. 6 have played a major role in bringing back bullish expectations. However, the huge amount of call (buy) options targeting $115,000 and higher for Dec. 25 raises questions about whether bulls are overconfident.<\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"351\" src=\"https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/pasted-image-418.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>December Bitcoin call (buy) options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Deribit exchange holds a 92% market share in December\u2019s Bitcoin options open interest at $5.5 billion. However, the actual value at expiry will be much lower. Many of these instruments were placed on unlikely outcomes as a hedge or for neutral strategies that do not require large price moves to remain profitable.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin call options dominate, but both sides have unrealistic bets<\/h2>\n<p>Put (sell) options are underrepresented by 56% on Deribit compared to call options. Crypto traders are known for being bullish, so the put-to-call ratio is usually skewed. Still, the $1.85 billion in open interest in call options targeting $115,000 and higher is significant. This setup makes it worth comparing how optimistic call options are versus the puts.<\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"326\" src=\"https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/pasted-image-419.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>December Bitcoin put (sell) options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The high volume of put options targeting $55,000 and lower is also notable, totaling $1 billion in open interest. This means the percentage of bets considered improbable is similar for both sides, sitting at roughly 50% of the open interest in each segment. If bulls are seen as overly optimistic, then the bears appear equally <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/analysts-still-see-final-flush-to-50k-despite-current-market-hopium\"><span>extreme in their pessimism<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"364\" src=\"https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/pasted-image-420.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>December Bitcoin options pricing at Deribit on May 7. Source: Deribit<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Beyond serving as a counterbalance in strategies with different expiry dates, a call option at $120,000 offers cheap exposure to extreme upside events. Based on Deribit prices on May 7, a buyer pays $2,202 to secure unlimited upside exposure to the equivalent of one full <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/peter-brandt-polymarket-traders-new-bitcoin-highs-unlikely-2026\"><span>Bitcoin<\/span><\/a> at a price of $120,000 or higher on Dec. 25.<\/p>\n<p>The options skew metric provides a clearer view of professional traders\u2019 comfort levels regarding both upside and downside price risks.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Related: <\/strong><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/markets\/bitcoin-holds-81k-amid-flat-derivatives-markets-is-the-rally-sustainable\"><span><em><strong>Bitcoin holds $81K amid flat derivatives markets\u2013Is rally sustainable?<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<figure><img loading=\"lazy\" alt width=\"896\" height=\"314\" src=\"https:\/\/payload.cointelegraph.com\/api\/media\/file\/pasted-image-421.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<p><em>Bitcoin 6-month options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit: Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/app.laevitas.ch\/assets\/options\/skew-bf\/BTC\/DERIBIT\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span><em>Laevitas<\/em><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent calls, signaling moderate fear of downside price movements in Bitcoin. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should range between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives metrics, investor optimism was not substantially impacted by the rally to $80,000.<\/p>\n<p>Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in December call options should not be interpreted as a sign of excessive bullish confidence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/editorial-policy\">Editorial Policy<\/a> and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways: Half of the $6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest is tied to long-shot strategies used for hedging [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":78694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}