{"id":77477,"date":"2026-05-05T09:51:44","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T02:51:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/rba-set-to-raise-interest-rate-amid-war-driven-inflation\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T11:13:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T04:13:37","slug":"rba-du-kien-tang-lai-suat-trong-boi-canh-lam-phat-bi-thuc-day-boi-chien-tranh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/rba-du-kien-tang-lai-suat-trong-boi-canh-lam-phat-bi-thuc-day-boi-chien-tranh\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t b\u1ecb th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi chi\u1ebfn tranh"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) s\u1ebd h\u1ecdp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Ba. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00eam 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u2013 l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp \u2013 \u0111\u01b0a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh (OCR) l\u00ean 4,35% t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 4,10% hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ec7, RBA s\u1ebd c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m r\u00f5 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn ph\u00eda sau quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Michele Bullock sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd h\u1ecdp b\u00e1o, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p th\u00eam g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ec1m c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, AUD giao d\u1ecbch kh\u00e1 y\u1ebfu do lo ng\u1ea1i leo thang t\u1eeb xung \u0111\u1ed9t Iran, khi\u1ebfn nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 chuy\u1ec3n sang t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n an to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

T\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a RBA l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y. Ban \u0111\u1ea7u, chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u0103m 2026 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 4,6% YoY trong th\u00e1ng 3 \u2013 m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t h\u01a1n hai n\u0103m \u2013 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu do gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh t\u1eeb chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran.<\/p>\n

RBA g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u1eed l\u00fd \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ed1c r\u1ec5 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u00f3 c\u00f2n t\u1ea1o th\u00eam \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cho h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh \u00dac khi chi ph\u00ed vay mua nh\u00e0 t\u0103ng cao \u2013 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u0169ng leo thang.<\/p>\n

Ngay c\u1ea3 khi RBA ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2026, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, m\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n t\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i, \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 2 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba, c\u00f2n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp theo ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran \u2013 v\u00e0 ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u00f2n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia c\u1ee7a Commerzbank cho bi\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng OIS \u0111ang \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 74% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng RBA ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng 25bps, v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 64bps \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn cao, v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2\u20133%, do chi ph\u00ed nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u t\u0103ng v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba duy tr\u00ec m\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi AUD\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Do vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00ean AUD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d, AUD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u00e0 t\u0103ng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p \u201c\u00f4n h\u00f2a\u201d s\u1ebd g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean AUD, d\u00f9 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng cao.<\/p>\n

Theo Valeria Bednarik, chuy\u00ean gia ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i FXStreet, AUD\/USD hi\u1ec7n giao d\u1ecbch quanh 0,7180, gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ec9nh tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc 0,7227 \u2013 m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 6\/2022. USD \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi lo ng\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn tranh Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p ti\u1ec1n v\u1eabn dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong bi\u00ean quen thu\u1ed9c.<\/p>\n

Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a AUD \u0111ang y\u1ebfu d\u1ea7n, nh\u01b0ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m s\u00e2u c\u0169ng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. V\u00f9ng SMA 20 ng\u00e0y quanh 0,7130 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu h\u00fat l\u1ef1c mua; n\u1ebfu ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1, gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00f9i v\u1ec1 0,7090. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu RBA ph\u00e1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u201cdi\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d, AUD\/USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i ki\u1ec3m tra \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi v\u00f9ng 0,7270, d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n v\u1eabn ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh.<\/p>\n

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C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eb7p v\u1ec1 RBA<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) l\u00e0 c\u01a1 quan thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a \u00dac. C\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1edfi h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb trong 11 cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp kh\u1ea9n n\u1ebfu c\u1ea7n. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a RBA l\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, t\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong kho\u1ea3ng 2\u20133%, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u201cg\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, to\u00e0n d\u1ee5ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng kinh t\u1ebf cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u00dac\u201d. C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng AUD v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. Ngo\u00e0i ra, RBA c\u00f2n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE) v\u00e0 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QT).<\/p>\n

D\u00f9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb xem l\u00e0 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, thu h\u00fat d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u2013 trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y l\u00e0 AUD.<\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 GDP, PMI s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn AUD. M\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn RBA t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, qua \u0111\u00f3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n.<\/p>\n

N\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QE) l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng trong c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan khi vi\u1ec7c h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng. QE l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh RBA \u201cb\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 mua t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n (th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ho\u1eb7c doanh nghi\u1ec7p), nh\u1eb1m cung c\u1ea5p thanh kho\u1ea3n cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. QE th\u01b0\u1eddng khi\u1ebfn AUD suy y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

Th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng (QT) l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a QE, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n khi kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng. Trong QT, RBA ng\u1eebng mua th\u00eam t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1o h\u1ea1n. QT th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi AUD.<\/p>\n

Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf: RBA Rate Statement<\/strong><\/p>\n

Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a RBA \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra b\u1edfi h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 trong th\u00f4ng c\u00e1o b\u00e1o ch\u00ed v\u00e0o l\u00fac 14:30 sau m\u1ed7i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Read more. <\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) s\u1ebd h\u1ecdp ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 trong tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0o […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":77478,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77477"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77477\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77576,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77477\/revisions\/77576"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}