{"id":69934,"date":"2026-04-09T09:26:56","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:26:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/chuyen-gia-tiet-lo-mot-chi-bao-dang-tin-cay-co-the-tac-dong-toi-xu-huong-thi-truong-chung-khoan\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T09:26:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T02:26:56","slug":"chuyen-gia-tiet-lo-mot-chi-bao-dang-tin-cay-co-the-tac-dong-toi-xu-huong-thi-truong-chung-khoan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/chuyen-gia-tiet-lo-mot-chi-bao-dang-tin-cay-co-the-tac-dong-toi-xu-huong-thi-truong-chung-khoan\/","title":{"rendered":"Chuy\u00ean gia ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u1ea1i ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Dinsights – La b\u00e0n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 do Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n VNDirect <\/b> t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y,\u00a0c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh qu\u00fd 2\/2026 l\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u201cb\u1ea3n l\u1ec1\u201d khi c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n ng\u00e3 ng\u0169: gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau hay kh\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec9nh. <\/p>\n

L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec9nh? \ufeff <\/b> <\/p>\n

V\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, \u0111a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang ti\u1ec7m c\u1eadn v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec9nh n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u00eam c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1edbn t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m nhanh trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n kh\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n l\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u1edf v\u00f9ng cao (sideway) trong qu\u00fd 2, v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t t\u1eeb qu\u00fd 3\/2026. <\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, t\u1eeb qu\u00fd 4\/2025, m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ec1n g\u1eedi t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh v\u1edbi bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 kho\u1ea3ng 2-2,5 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ch\u1ec9 ra 3 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n khi\u1ebfn l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng bao g\u1ed3m: <\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t <\/b> , trong hai n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c “v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1eb7t” t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 cho vay tr\u00ean huy \u0111\u1ed9ng (LDR) c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng b\u1ecb k\u00e9o c\u0103ng. Khi ngu\u1ed3n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng kh\u00f4ng theo k\u1ecbp t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thanh kho\u1ea3n t\u00edch t\u1ee5 l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu. <\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai <\/b> , k\u00eanh b\u1ed5 sung thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u00f4ng qua mua v\u00e0o ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u1eb9p \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m qua do b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i thay \u0111\u1ed5i. L\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi con s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng tr\u00ean s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch. <\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 ba <\/b> , xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Iran b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh “c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ngo\u1ea1i sinh”, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u01a1 quan \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u0129 m\u00f4 – qua \u0111\u00f3 m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t nhanh nh\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. <\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, chuy\u00ean gia VNDirect ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t leading indicator <\/i> (ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o d\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng). ” L\u1ecbch s\u1eed cho th\u1ea5y xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn “m\u01b0\u1ee3t” v\u00e0 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu. Vi\u1ec7c quan s\u00e1t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng <\/i> “, chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh. <\/p>\n

\ufeffK\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u00e0o \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i so v\u1edbi c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu? <\/b> <\/p>\n

Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t 9-10%\/n\u0103m \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh k\u00eanh t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 th\u1ea9m th\u1ea5u h\u1ebft m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1edbi – c\u1ea3 ph\u00eda ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh l\u1eabn ph\u00eda \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng. <\/p>\n

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia \u01b0u ti\u00ean trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y l\u00e0: t\u0103ng t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng k\u00eanh fixed income, nh\u01b0ng \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n ng\u1eafn 3-6 th\u00e1ng. Theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia VNDirect, khi ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh, k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n ng\u1eafn gi\u00fap nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 linh ho\u1ea1t t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u1edf m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ecb “kh\u00f3a” v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec9nh ch\u01b0a xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n. <\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t thanh kho\u1ea3n, qu\u1ef9 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ri\u00eang l\u1ebb, nh\u1edd kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u00fat v\u1ed1n linh ho\u1ea1t h\u01a1n trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. <\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd cho nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: <\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 then ch\u1ed1t. Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t, \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u00edch c\u1ef1c cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro. <\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu l\u00e0 k\u00eanh \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. V\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t 9-10%\/n\u0103m, k\u00eanh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111ang c\u1ea1nh tranh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi k\u00eanh c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t sinh l\u1eddi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng <\/b> . <\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 ba, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh “t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9” h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. N\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u quay v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 70-80 USD\/th\u00f9ng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 m\u1edf ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n cho nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n <\/p>\n

C\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u01b0a ra khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n thanh l\u1ecdc v\u00e0 t\u00edch l\u0169y. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng; n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u quay v\u1ec1 v\u00f9ng 70-80 USD\/th\u00f9ng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i t\u1ecfa, m\u1edf ra d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba cho m\u1ed9t chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. S\u1ee9c ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1edd x\u1ebfp h\u1ea1ng t\u00edn nhi\u1ec7m qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a v\u1eabn c\u00f2n. <\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, kim ch\u1ec9 nam cho giai \u0111o\u1ea1n t\u1edbi l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3n \u0111\u1ea7u “\u0111i\u1ec3m xoay tr\u1ee5c” c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u1ea1i ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Dinsights – La b\u00e0n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 do Ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n VNDirect t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y,\u00a0c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia nh\u1eadn […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":69936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[221],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69934","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chung-khoan"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69934","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69934"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69934\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69934"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69934"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69934"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}