{"id":62550,"date":"2026-03-05T14:30:53","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T07:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/senator-flags-white-house-corruption-concerns-over-iran-war-predictions-markets\/"},"modified":"2026-03-05T14:30:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T07:30:53","slug":"senator-flags-white-house-corruption-concerns-over-iran-war-predictions-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/senator-flags-white-house-corruption-concerns-over-iran-war-predictions-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Senator Flags White House &#8216;Corruption&#8217; Concerns Over Iran War Predictions Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<h4 color=\"#333\">In brief<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Senator Chris Murphy has alleged people with White House access placed six-figure predictions market bets the day before the U.S. struck Iran.<\/li>\n<li>Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps previously identified six accounts that collectively made $1.2 million betting on U.S. strikes on Iran, with no prior trading history.<\/li>\n<li>Murphy said he plans to introduce legislation banning \u201cdestabilizing prediction markets.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<p><span>A series of unusually timed prediction market bets placed just hours before U.S. strikes on Iran has triggered fresh accusations of insider profiteering, with Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) warning that individuals with advance knowledge of military decisions may have made money wagering on war.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>\u201cThe Iran war is fueling a new kind of corruption: White House officials secretly profiting off war,\u201d Murphy said in a video posted to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ChrisMurphyCT\/status\/2029222984196448672\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>X<\/span><\/a><span>. \u201cIt&#8217;s disgusting. We need to ban it.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt looks like those six big accounts that were set up on Friday made a profit of a million dollars off of us going to war on Saturday,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p><span>Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/bubblemaps\/status\/2027718004193300791\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>identified<\/span><\/a><span> six suspected insider accounts last week that collectively made $1.2 million on Polymarket bets on whether &#8220;U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?&#8221;<\/span><span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and bought \u201cYes\u201d shares just hours before explosions in Tehran, with one account purchasing over 560,000 shares at about 10.8 cents\u2014later paying out nearly $560,000 when the market settled at $1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Traders poured $425.4 million into Polymarket\u2019s geopolitics markets in the week ending March 1, compared with $163.9 million the week before, according to user-compiled Dune Analytics <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/dune.com\/queries\/6766230\/10634612\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>data<\/span><\/a><span>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The White House and Polymarket did not immediately respond to <\/span><i><span>Decrypt&#8217;s<\/span><\/i><span> requests for comment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The backlash against prediction markets comes as the U.S. Senate rejected a bipartisan <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.law.cornell.edu\/uscode\/text\/50\/chapter-33\" target=\"_blank\"><span>war power resolution<\/span><\/a><span> seeking to limit President Donald Trump\u2019s authority to continue military action in Iran without congressional approval, in a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-war-senate-vote-war-powers-06f9465c16218f90192f7502baa736eb\" target=\"_blank\"><span>53\u201347 vote<\/span><\/a><span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Murphy has previously <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ChrisMurphyCT\/status\/2027504709204852903\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>signaled<\/span><\/a><span> that he plans to introduce legislation banning <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/resources\/what-are-decentralized-prediction-markets-myriad-polymarket-kalshi\" target=\"_blank\"><span>prediction markets<\/span><\/a><span> that allow individuals to profit from sensitive government actions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Last month, the senator <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ChrisMurphyCT\/status\/2011544223401853073\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\"><span>wrote<\/span><\/a><span> on X that he is working on legislation to ban &#8220;corrupt and destabilizing prediction markets,&#8221; where insiders aware of a given outcome &#8220;can rig the game to favor certain bets.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A <\/span><i><span>New York Times<\/span><\/i> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/03\/upshot\/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html\" target=\"_blank\"><span>analysis<\/span><\/a><span> of Polymarket data found more than 150 accounts placed bets of at least $1,000 correctly predicting an American strike by Saturday, a late surge totaling roughly $855,000.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>At least 16 of those accounts each ultimately profited by over $100,000, according to the report.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;If we continue to allow people to bet on war, on military strikes, then you&#8217;re going to have people inside the Situation Room who are making decisions not based on what&#8217;s good for national security, but based upon whether they&#8217;ll make money off of war,&#8221; Murphy said on Wednesday. &#8220;There&#8217;s going to be somebody in that room who&#8217;s going to be pushing us into war because they can cash in.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Murphy also pointed to rising costs facing Americans, saying that at a time when people are struggling to afford groceries and gas, and prices are climbing because of the war, it is \u201ceven more outrageous that there are people inside the White House who are making tons of money.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Last month, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/357892\/israelis-arrested-alleged-insider-polymarket-trades-idf-military-secrets\" target=\"_blank\"><span>Israeli authorities charged<\/span><\/a><span> an IDF reservist and a civilian with using classified military intelligence to place Polymarket bets ahead of Israel&#8217;s operations against Iran.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>On Tuesday, Polymarket pulled a market asking traders to bet on whether a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/decrypt.co\/359897\/polymarket-pulls-nuclear-detonation-market-following-public-backlash\" target=\"_blank\"><span>nuclear weapon would be detonated<\/span><\/a><span> this year, after it drew widespread backlash.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3>Daily Debrief Newsletter<\/h3>\n<p>Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In brief Senator Chris Murphy has alleged people with White House access placed six-figure predictions market bets the day before [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":62551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}