{"id":61143,"date":"2026-02-03T09:47:39","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T02:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-flash-crash-recovery-to-100k-may-take-6-months-analyst\/"},"modified":"2026-02-03T09:47:39","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T02:47:39","slug":"bitcoin-flash-crash-recovery-to-100k-may-take-6-months-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/bitcoin-flash-crash-recovery-to-100k-may-take-6-months-analyst\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin flash crash recovery to $100K may take 6 months: Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-testid=\"html-renderer-container\">\n<p>Bitcoin (<a href=\"http:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/bitcoin-price\">BTC<\/a>) closed its weekly candle at $76,931 on Sunday, causing BTC to lose its 100-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. Analysts are now weighing whether the move marks the early stages of a bear market and what this shift may mean for Bitcoin\u2019s recovery in the long term.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p>Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 100-week simple moving average, a trend linked with multi-month drawdowns.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Past bearish breakouts below the weekly trend lasted between 182 and 532 days.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Heavy spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000 may turn that level into a major resistance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Bitcoin slips below a long-term weekly trend<\/h2>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\">Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits near $87,500. This marks a loss of a key macro trend level for BTC.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto proponent Brett <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/brett_eth\/status\/2018277266623545553?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/brett_eth\/status\/2018277266623545553?s=20\">noted<\/a> that, aside from the 2020 COVID-19 flash crash, Bitcoin has spent extended periods below the 100-week SMA. During the 2014 to 2015 cycle, BTC remained under the level for 357 days as prices ranged between $200 and $600 following the 2013 bull market peak.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-02\/019c1ed8-d21e-76d1-b387-0a3a5e4b164a.png\" title><figcaption><em>Bitcoin days below the 100W SMA. Source: Brett\/X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In 2018 to 2019, the period lasted 182 days, coinciding with the bear market bottom between $3,000 and $6,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In\u00a02022, Bitcoin spent 532 days below the 100-week SMA after the FTX collapse, consolidating between $16,000 and $25,000.<\/p>\n<p>Each instance led to an accumulation phase rather than a quick rebound, suggesting time may again be the key factor before the next bullish period.<\/p>\n<h2>USDT dominance and $85,000 resistance raise bear market risk<\/h2>\n<p>Crypto analyst Sherlock <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Sherlockwhale\/status\/2017580445026705735?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Sherlockwhale\/status\/2017580445026705735?s=20\">said<\/a> a bear market may emerge after the USDT dominance chart posted a weekly close above 7.2%. In past cycles, a close above 6.7% confirmed bearish conditions, making the recent breakout, its first in more than two and a half years, particularly significant.<\/p>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-02\/019c1ed6-a9da-761e-a755-dd22994444ef.jpg\" title><figcaption><em>USDT dominance chart analysis by Sherlock. Source: X<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Sherlockwhale\/status\/2017965006675927201?s=20\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" title=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Sherlockwhale\/status\/2017965006675927201?s=20\">highlighted<\/a> $85,000 as a key resistance zone. More than $120 billion in spot volume was traded between $85,000 and $95,000 in Q4, 2025, leaving many BTC holders underwater. With BTC near $78,000, any rally toward $85,000 may face steady selling pressure as the traders may look to exit at breakeven, with the realized price of one-to-three-month holders currently at $91,500. <\/p>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-02\/019c1f71-bc37-7844-8934-462ad4acfdb8.png\" title><figcaption><em>Bitcoin realized price of 1m-3m holder cohorts. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/btc-price-heads-back-to-2021-five-things-bitcoin-this-week\"><em><strong>Related: BTC price heads back to 2021: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<h2>BTC fractal structure mirrors dip from 2022<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s weekly structure is showing similarities to the 2022 dip. At that time, BTC formed lower highs, lost the 100-week SMA, and failed to sustain a recovery before moving into a deeper correction.<\/p>\n<figure>    <img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.cointelegraph.com\/uploads\/2026-02\/019c1ed1-8c35-7a5c-b907-16a6df478f13.png\" title><figcaption><em>BTC\/USDT 1-week chart with head and shoulders pattern. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>A similar pattern is now visible in 2026. If the fractal continues, Bitcoin may revisit the $40,000 to $45,000 range, an established demand zone. While fractals are not predictive, the setup suggests downside risk remains elevated unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims the 100-week SMA.<\/p>\n<p data-ct-non-breakable=\"undefined\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/saylor-strategy-buys-75m-btc-dip-below-75k\"><em><strong>Related: Saylor\u2019s Strategy buys $75.3M in BTC as prices briefly dip below $75K<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<p><template data-name=\"subscription_form\" data-type=\"markets_outlook\" label=\"Subscription Form: Markets Outlook\"><\/template><\/div>\n<p data-testid=\"post-category-disclaimer\"><span>This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC) closed its weekly candle at $76,931 on Sunday, causing BTC to lose its 100-week moving average for the [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":61145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61143","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61143"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61143\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61143"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61143"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61143"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}