{"id":58216,"date":"2025-12-30T14:56:04","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T07:56:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/is-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-broken-and-if-so-where-to-next\/"},"modified":"2025-12-30T14:56:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T07:56:04","slug":"is-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-broken-and-if-so-where-to-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/is-bitcoins-4-year-cycle-broken-and-if-so-where-to-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Bitcoin\u2019s 4-year cycle broken \u2014 and if so, where to next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A wave of institutional crypto participation spurred by exchange-traded funds, an easing of regulations in the US, an increase in global liquidity, and a Federal Reserve leadership change are just some of the reasons why analysts think the typical four-year crypto cycle is broken.<\/p>\n

The four-year cycle<\/a> is tied to Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) halving events, which cut miner rewards in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Historically, this was seen as the catalyst for a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull run<\/a> that peaked around 18 months later, followed by a sharp correction and multi-year bear market.<\/p>\n

Some analysts note that Bitcoin\u2019s current price action is playing out exactly as a four-year cycle would, as it has declined 30% from its peak in the year after the halving, and has entered a bearish phase.<\/p>\n

Four-year cycle has broken, analysts\u00a0say <\/h2>\n

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the halving cycle appeared to start to break down<\/a> in 2025.<\/p>\n

He added the breakdown was driven by sustained institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries that \u201clessened the expected post-peak crash and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Earlier in December, Grayscale predicted<\/a> that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing a growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called \u2018four-year cycle,\u2019 or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern.\u201d\u00a0<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in early December that the cycle theory was \u201cno longer valid\u201d and halved<\/a> the bank\u2019s prediction, now saying that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Other crypto executives, including Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes<\/a>, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, and CEO Hunter Horsley and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, all think that the four-year cycle is a thing of the past.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: <\/em>Fidelity Investments<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Four-year cycles are still a thing\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n

However, several analysts think the cycle is still in play and crypto has already entered a bear market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Crypto has everything needed for a bull market, so why is the market down?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cBitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy,\u201d 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph<\/a> earlier in December.<\/p>\n

Analyst \u201cRekt Capital\u201d has also maintained<\/a> that the four-year cycle is still intact, but said on Dec. 20 that \u201cIf BTC\u2019s 4-year cycle is \u2018broken,\u2019 it\u2019s probably just leveling up.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Analysts have also claimed that traders expect the cycle to be intact and sell in anticipation of it, further depressing prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, who is known as \u201cPlanB,\u201d said<\/a> on Dec. 17 that most of the selling was due to \u201cOGs traumatized by 2021,\u201d and \u201cfour-year cycle fans expecting a bear market two years post-halving.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analyst Alex Wacy said<\/a> on Tuesday that the four-year cycle isn\u2019t broken, but expectations are.<\/p>\n

\u201cAltcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain. While stocks made ATHs, AI went vertical, and gold outperformed. Cycles don\u2019t always end. Sometimes they stretch.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n