{"id":56123,"date":"2025-11-27T09:29:04","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T02:29:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/bitcoin-price-breaks-below-50-ma-for-the-first-time-this-cycle-why-a-crash-to-38000-could-be-coming\/"},"modified":"2025-11-27T09:29:04","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T02:29:04","slug":"bitcoin-price-breaks-below-50-ma-for-the-first-time-this-cycle-why-a-crash-to-38000-could-be-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/bitcoin-price-breaks-below-50-ma-for-the-first-time-this-cycle-why-a-crash-to-38000-could-be-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Price Breaks Below 50-MA For The First Time This Cycle, Why A Crash To $38,000 Could Be Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"
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According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, the Bitcoin price has broken below the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first time in the current cycle, triggering renewed fears of a deeper decline. With price momentum weakening and long-term trend indicators flashing bearish warning signals, <\/span>the possibility of a price crash<\/span><\/a> to $38,000 is becoming hard to ignore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

50-MA Breakdown To Trigger $38,000 Bitcoin Price Crash<\/h2>\n

The Bitcoin price action took a decisive turn this week as the market slipped below the 50 MA for the first time in this <\/span>four-year cycle<\/span><\/a>. Severino <\/span>noted<\/span><\/a> in his technical analysis shared on X this Monday that the 50 MA has historically marked the beginning of extended downturns. He <\/span>stated<\/span><\/a> that following <\/span>Bitcoin\u2019s launch<\/span><\/a> over 14 years ago, every time it has closed below the 50 MA, a prolonged bear market has followed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Severino\u2019s price chart highlights <\/span>BTC\u2019s price performance<\/span><\/a> from 2017 to date. In the past three Bitcoin bear markets, after the price fell below the 50-week MA, BTC continued to drop an additional 61%, 59%, and 67%. On average, the cryptocurrency has lost 62% from the break point.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"
Source: Chart from Tony Severino on X<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Applying the 62% drawdown to this cycle\u2019s 50 MA level, the analyst predicts Bitcoin could soon experience a price crash to $38,000. From the cryptocurrency\u2019s current price of above $87,000, this represents a staggering 60% decline. Additionally, it would imply a roughly 70% decline from <\/span>its all-time high of more than $126,000<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Severino warns that traders calling for a <\/span>price bottom<\/span><\/a> may be ignoring how far Bitcoin has historically fallen once this long-term trend fails. He indicated that the 50-week MA has repeatedly served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases, and that price slipping below it has more often led to extended periods of <\/span>weakness and capitulation<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoin Momentum Indicator Falls To Historic Lows<\/h2>\n

A second analysis<\/span> presented<\/span><\/a> by Severino focuses on Bitcoin\u2019s daily LMACD, which is now near levels not seen in more than 1,250 days. The oscillator has only pushed below this level six times since <\/span>BTC\u2019s 2017 macro peak<\/span><\/a>. These past instances correspond to periods of heavy downside momentum where the cryptocurrency had yet to complete its <\/span>bottoming process<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking at Severino\u2019s price chart, the extended period without revisiting this lower bound suggests Bitcoin may be overdue for a momentum reset. The <\/span>LMACD indicator<\/span><\/a>\u2019s current reading is also unusually weak historically, signaling that market momentum has not yet reached extreme pessimism.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The readings further indicate that, although <\/span>BTC remains in a downtrend<\/span><\/a>, price corrections remain possible before a true bottom is established. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is trading below $87,000 amid volatile, choppy conditions that have contributed to its 24% decline over the past month.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"
BTC trading at $86,859 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

According to crypto analyst Tony Severino, the Bitcoin price has broken below the 50-week Moving Average (MA) for the first […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":56124,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tien-dien-tu"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56123\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56124"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}