{"id":50985,"date":"2025-10-09T11:28:23","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T04:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/heres-the-real-reason-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes\/"},"modified":"2025-10-09T11:28:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T04:28:23","slug":"heres-the-real-reason-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/heres-the-real-reason-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-dead-arthur-hayes\/","title":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s the real reason the 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead: Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has agreed that the four-year crypto cycle is dead, but not for the reasons most people believe.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cAs the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,\u201d said Hayes in a blog post on Thursday.<\/p>\n

He added that while the four-year pattern worked in the past, it is no longer applicable and \u201cwill fail this time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes<\/a> argued that Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) price cycles are driven by the supply and quantity of money, primarily USD and the Chinese yuan, rather than arbitrary four-year patterns linked to halving events<\/a>, or as a direct result of institutional interest in crypto. <\/p>\n

Past cycles ended when monetary conditions tightened, not because of timing, Hayes said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The current cycle is different\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Hayes argues the cycle is different for several reasons, including the US Treasury draining $2.5 trillion from the Fed\u2019s Reverse Repo program into the markets by issuing more Treasury bills and President Trump wanting to \u201crun it hot\u201d with easier monetary policy<\/a> to grow out of debt.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There are also plans to deregulate banks to increase lending.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Is the four-year crypto cycle dead? Believers are growing louder<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

Additionally, the US central bank has resumed rate cuts despite inflation being above its target. Two more rate cuts are predicted this year, with 94% odds on an October cut and 80% odds on another one in December, according<\/a> to CME futures markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about Chinese and US money printing<\/h2>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s first bull run coincided with Federal Reserve quantitative easing and Chinese credit expansion, ending when both the Fed and Chinese central bank slowed money printing in late 2013.<\/p>\n

The second \u201cICO cycle\u201d was driven primarily by the yuan credit explosion and currency devaluation in 2015, not the USD. The bull market collapsed as Chinese credit growth decelerated and dollar conditions tightened, he said.<\/p>\n

During the third \u201c[COVID-19] cycle,\u201d Bitcoin surged on USD liquidity alone while China stayed relatively restrained. It ended when the Fed began tightening in late 2021, Hayes explained.<\/p>\n

China won\u2019t kill the cycle this time<\/h2>\n

Hayes argued that while China<\/a> won\u2019t fuel this rally as much as it did in previous cycles, policymakers are moving to \u201cend deflation\u201d rather than continuing to drain liquidity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This shift from a deflationary headwind to at least neutral, or mildly supportive monetary policy, removes a major obstacle that would have killed the cycle, allowing US monetary expansion to drive Bitcoin higher without Chinese deflation counteracting it, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cListen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

When the economic pressure proves too intense, Chinese policymakers print money, says Arthur Hayes. Source: Arthur Hayes<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Many still believe in the four-year cycle<\/h2>\n

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated<\/a> in August that \u201cfrom a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin\u2019s price action also echoes prior patterns.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it\u2019s very likely that we\u2019ll continue to see some form of a cycle,\u201d crypto exchange Gemini\u2019s head of APAC region, Saad Ahmed, told<\/a> Cointelegraph earlier this month.<\/p>\n

Magazine: <\/strong><\/em>Hong Kong isn\u2019t the loophole Chinese crypto firms think it is<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n