{"id":49621,"date":"2025-09-29T12:23:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T05:23:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/dow-jones-industrial-average-rebounds-after-pce-inflation-print-keeps-rate-cut-hopes-alive\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T12:23:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T05:23:08","slug":"dow-jones-industrial-average-rebounds-after-pce-inflation-print-keeps-rate-cut-hopes-alive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/dow-jones-industrial-average-rebounds-after-pce-inflation-print-keeps-rate-cut-hopes-alive\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounds after PCE inflation print keeps rate cut hopes alive"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fxs_article_body\">\n<ul>\n<li value=\"1\"><strong>The Dow Jones rebounded over 350 points on Friday, climbing back above 46,000.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li value=\"2\"><strong>Fed rate cut expectations are still on track after PCE inflation met market forecasts.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li value=\"3\"><strong>Despite a coolish print, inflation continues to hold on the wrong side of the Fed\u2019s 2% annual target.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rebounded on Friday, paring away the midweek\u2019s losses and recovering footing as investors self-soothe over odds of a follow-up interest rate cut in October. US Personal Consumption Expenditures <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/economic-calendar\" data-fxs-autoanchor>Price Index<\/a> (PCE) inflation came in about where median market forecasts predicted, keeping market hopes for an October rate trim on the high side.<\/p>\n<h2>Inflation holds steady, keeping rate cut bets on balance<\/h2>\n<p>Core PCE inflation held steady at 2.9% on an annual basis, meeting market forecasts. The monthly figure also held flat at 0.2% MoM, while headline PCE inflation accelerated to 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The US economy is now eight months into its \u201cone-time inflation passthrough\u201d from the Trump administration\u2019s tariffs, and core annual PCE inflation metrics are at the same level they were nearly 18 months ago in March of 2024.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editorial.fxsstatic.com\/miscelaneous\/image-1758907138238-1758907138239.png\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p>Despite the lack of meaningful progress on inflation, markets are still leaning into the bullish side as Friday\u2019s PCE inflation print was not high enough to spark any concerns about the Fed falling back into hawkish territory. Amid a slumping labor market, the Fed is still on track to deliver a second straight quarter-point interest rate cut on October 25th. According to the CME\u2019s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in nearly 90% odds that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/macroeconomics\/central-banks\/fed\" data-fxs-autoanchor>Fed<\/a> will deliver a 25 bps rate trim to match the opening rate cut from September\u2019s rate meeting.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editorial.fxsstatic.com\/miscelaneous\/image-1758907011114-1758907011115.png\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<p><small>Core PCE inflation, YoY<\/small><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>Personal Income and Personal Spending both rose in August, climbing to 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. While rising income and consumption metrics are positive signs for the US economy, accelerating wage pressures could bolster inflation metrics in the future, complicating the Fed\u2019s path to a fresh rate-cutting cycle.<\/p>\n<h2>Consumer sentiment eases slightly, but plenty of work still on the cards<\/h2>\n<p>September\u2019s University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Expectations and Sentiment Indexes both declined slightly from the previous month, but again, the data was mostly in line with market expectations. UoM 5-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also ticked lower in September, but the topline figures are still riding high at 4.7% and 3.7%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Consumers have a strong tendency to overshoot realistic outcomes, but such consistently high figures over time could be a warning of overly price-sensitive consumers\u2019 inflation expectations becoming entrenched in a self-fulfilling prophecy. As long as consumers continue to expect above-pace inflation, businesses will be more inclined to meet those expectations.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editorial.fxsstatic.com\/miscelaneous\/image-1758907111994-1758907111995.png\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<h2>Dow Jones daily chart<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/editorial.fxsstatic.com\/miscelaneous\/image-1758907194777-1758907194778.png\" alt loading=\"lazy\"><\/p>\n<div id=\"content-module-event-5d82bf81-1d17-411e-8213-1178a00ad414-305\" data-type=\"event\" data-module=\"event\" data-config-event-id=\"fd5a3b53-db1c-4ec4-8393-ff91ca73a272\" data-config-topic=\"5d82bf81-1d17-411e-8213-1178a00ad414\" data-config-mode=\"Historical\" data-version=\"v1\" data-content-module-translate=\"0\">\n<h2>Economic Indicator<\/h2>\n<div>\n<div>\n<h3>Core Personal Consumption Expenditures &#8211; Price Index (YoY)<\/h3>\n<p>The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bea.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\">US Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/a> on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.&#8221; Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.<\/p>\n<p>             <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/economic-calendar\/event\/fd5a3b53-db1c-4ec4-8393-ff91ca73a272\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"read more\">                                  <span>Read more.<\/span>             <\/a>         <\/div>\n<section>\n<p>After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed\u2019s forward guidance and vice versa.<\/p>\n<\/section><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div>\n<p>Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page. <\/p>\n<p>If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.<\/p>\n<p>FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.<\/p>\n<p>The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dow Jones rebounded over 350 points on Friday, climbing back above 46,000. Fed rate cut expectations are still on [&hellip;]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":49622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[222],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ngoai-hoi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49622"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hbbgroup.net\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}